One more trade before the deadline?

Having just experienced three days without access to the internet, I was curious to see how my teams performed in my “absence.”

In L.A. Slackers, Harder’s Hitters maintained first place. One benefit of my forced inattention was sitting Gio Gonzalez for the latest in his longish stretch of lousy outings. We’re still in first, by nine points as of today, with 55.

In Pine Tar and Cold Beer (the head-to-head league), I had set up my weekly lineups before departing on my business trip, so there wasn’t anything I might have done except pick up free agents. Whether I missed out on anyone or not, I upped my transaction lead upon my return. The Jo-Hari Hitters sit in second place, five games back of the Black Sheeps and eight up on the two teams tied for third. A playoff berth seems assured.

Despite being in first place, fairly comfortably and for most of the season, in L.A. Slackers, I’m hoping to solidify that with one more trade with the ChowdaHeads, ensuring them of at least third place in an ideal win-win situation.

Rank	Team	-R	+HR	RBI	-SB	OBP	-W	SV	K	-HLD	ERA	WHIP
1	Harder's Hitters	575	156	551	98	.336*	59	59	860	49	3.79	1.27*
2	chi-town hustlers	523	154	524	80	.338*	67	52	824	40	3.55	1.24
3	Biloxi Ibexes	471	139	526	73	.338*	70	55	905	39	3.80	1.22
4	ChowdaHeads	514	104	517	74	.336*	65	74	863	32	3.16	1.15
5	Hollywood Weasels	537	127	520	86	.324	49	55	803	43	3.51	1.27*
6	Khronic	532	146	567	76	.352	43	3	675	41	4.38	1.35
7	Wombats	517	99	441	70	.337	69	57	772	30	3.47	1.16

In runs, we have a comfortable lead, and could enable the ChowdaHeads to gain on the Hustlers, currently in second place. Net of ten runs needed.

In home runs, we are up by only two on the Hustlers. If they overtake us, that’s a two-point swing in the standings. The ChowdaHeads are second to last in HR, up by 5 over the last place team. Conceivably, they could trade us some HR.

We’re 16 RBI out of first, with a buffer of 25-31 over the next three teams. The ChowdaHeads are three back of that pack, so four to ten RBI would help them leapfrog the other three teams that are in contention. Conceivably, we could trade them some RBI.

In steals, we’re in first, twelve steals up on the second place team. The ChowdaHeads are in fifth with 74, one up on the overall third place Ibexes, six back of the second place overall Hustlers. Conceivably, we could help them in steals.

We’re tied in OBP, so no action there, other than each trying to gain on the Husters and Ibexes, a mere two points ahead (but at this point in the season, is it “mere?”).

In pitching, we could bag wins, or else we need to up the productivity to catch the ChowdaHeads. That doesn’t seem likely. Better would be to trade wins to the ChowdaHeads, as their 65 is but two behind the Hustlers and five back of the Ibexes, both teams they’re pursuing in the standings.

The ChowdaHeads should waltz in saves, and we should finish second, but behind our current 59 saves are teams with 57, 55, 55, and 52 (three of these being in the top five contenders in the league). They could trade us saves, still finish first, and help us lock down second in saves, first overall.

Strikeouts is like OBP…we’re tied, so let’s not touch this in trade.

Holds are very interesting. Having already done a saves for holds swap, it’s helped me but not the ChowdaHeads. They sit at 32 holds, two up on the last place team and 7, 8, 9, and 11 holds back of the teams between us and them (three of whom are in the running for second to fifth overall). It may be too late, but trading them more holds makes total sense.

All I can do in ERA is lose a point to the Ibexes, but that’s more a roster management issue and a fingers-crossing issue than a trade issue. Although, since relievers usually have lower ERAs than starters (albeit with lower leverage due to fewer innings), a holds guy plus starter for a closer could be worthwhile). The ChowdaHeads have a huge lead, so could trade ERA to us.

My pitching staff is WHIPped…tied for fifth, ahead of only one other team. The ChowdaHeads are in first, with a slim 0.01 lead over the second place team (a non-contender), and it’s not clear how to trade for that (nor if he’d want to risk any WHIP). Perhaps my trading him some net WHIP would help him without costing me anything (I’m 2^nd to last as is).

So the “executive summary” of all this is:

Hitters Chowdas

R need 10

HR need could trade

RBI need 16 need 4-10

SB need 6

W lost cause need 3-6

SV need security should waltz

HLD need a bunch

ERA risk of -1 big lead

WHIP can’t drop could solidify

Hitters trade runs, runs batted in, stolen bases, wins, and whip to the ChowdaHeads for empty home runs, earned run average, and saves.

But who are the players involved?

Probably have to be talking about non-keepers, but let’s be open to anything.

First off, are there any “empty” home run hitters on the ChowdaHeads roster who would be net upgrades to my team? Let’s go look…

Surprisingly, keeper Ian Kinsler may be someone to include in a trade, as the ChowdaHeads have Howie Kendrick at second base…Kinsler has scored 23 more runs, hit 10 more HR, driven in 14 more runs, and stolen 10 more bases, at the same OBP as Kendrick.

As for starting pitchers, I think I have to keep Felix Hernandez, and he probably doesn’t want Brandon Morrow (plus I need his strikeouts), but both Brandon McCarthy and Rich Harden have a 1.17 season WHIP, and could provide wins the rest of the way.

Rafael Soriano (or Mike Adams) could be the holds guy included.

So Hitters would be sending away Kinsler, Soriano, McCarthy, and Harden for empty home runs, saves, and ERA coming back. Kinsler would be replaced by Jason Kipnis, a possible keeper for next year (or Dustin Ackley, though he has cooled).

ChowdaHeads would put Kinsler at second and move Kendrick to left if he still wants to bench Coco Crisp, or bench Kendrick, move Hamilton to left, and put Crisp in center. They could stream the starters, and replace the closer traded away with Soriano/Adams.

The closer would have to be Kyle Farnsworth, as the ChowdaHeads want to keep Jonathan Papelbon.

As for the empty home runs, Hideki Matsui is slightly better than replacement level and doesn’t steal bases, and could replace Kinsler in the utility slot, but that’s not much value coming back…

Another take would be Nelson Cruz for Carlos Quentin, essentially giving up steals, but gaining OBP.

Kinsler, Cruz, Soriano, Harden and McCarthy for Farnsworth, Quentin, Matsui, and Takahashi?

Last 14 days:

Kinsler 7/2/9/2/.352

Kendrick 4/0/0/0/.243

Cruz 8/3/6/2/.381

Quentin 10/4/10/0/.288