Carlos Beltran a Giant!

Carlos Beltran, a second-round pick of the Charlottesville Meadows in The Strat-O-Matic League a number of years ago, was once a stellar defensive center fielder, a premier base stealer, and a solid power-hitting pinch hitter.

His career triple slash line (batting average, on base percent, slugging percentage) is .282/.361/.494 as of today.

These are all above league-average marks, but below the elite trifecta of .300/.400/.500.

In the 2001, 2003, 2008, and 2009 seasons he was above his current career mark in all three categories, so we might consider those his best years.

Last year, following knee issues for a couple of seasons, he struggled to a .255/.341/.427 line in 255 plate appearances. His injuries limited him to 612 plate appearances over the prior two seasons, and also changed him from a reliable 15+ steal guy (with a high of 42 in 2004) to a non-thief (3 steals in 2010).

In 2011, the final year of his contract with the Mets, he was moved to right field to protect his knees. It seems to be working, as he put up solid numbers for the out-of-contention Mets before being traded to the Giants for #1 pitching prospect Zack Wheeler.

Since he's a Meadow who is now a Giant, he becomes doubly a favorite, along with Pablo Sandoval and Sergio Romo. Woo-hoo!

Now the only questions are whether Beltran adds what the Giants hope he will and whether Wheeler is an eventual top of the rotation ace whom the Giants will regret trading for a rent-a-player.

Another Santana, this one Ervin

"It'll only be his fifth win of the season, but that belies how well he's pitched."

This was just said by announcer Jim Palmer on the Angels-Orioles game I'm watching, about Angels pitcher Ervin Santana. Since Santana is on the Charlottesville Meadows, I thought I'd dig a bit more into his season, which I see as borderline "playable" so far in Strat-O-Matic.

When I started watching in the bottom of the eighth, it was 2-0 Angels, with the Orioles having just put runners at first and second with one out.

The replay showed that Angels third baseman Alberto Callaspo had just made a diving stop of an opposite-field liner off the bat of Felix Pie that would have been an easy double, and even though he didn't come up with it cleanly, he held Pie to a single. Literally inches made the difference.

The next batter, rookie Blake Davis, lined the first pitch toward the right-center field gap, but speedy fellow rookie Mike Trout glided over to make the catch from his position in left-center field. Slightly different contact or a less rangy center fielder makes that a one or two run-scoring double.

Then, J.J. Hardy stroked a 95-mph pitch back up the middle for a single to make it 2-1 and knock Santana out of the game, with Hardy at first and the speedy Pie at second.

I changed channels, and when I came back it was the top of the ninth, Trout was on first, and Jeff Mathis was bunting the first pitch I saw. He sacrificed successfully, sending Trout to second. Trout is under four seconds to first base, simply elite speed.

Maicer Izturis walked on four straight pitches next, though two of them were arguably strikes that were not called.

With Torii Hunter at the plate facing a 2-strike count, Mike Scioscia sent the runners. The pitch was another close pitch, this one a called third strike (which Scioscia argued about afterward), but the runners advanced.

Two pitches to Bobby Abreu were called balls (I recall the first "should" have been a strike), so with a 2-0 count the Angels decided to just intentionally walk him to get a righty-righty match-up with Vernon Wells.

He hit a grand slam to make it 6-1, which made it much more likely that Ervin Santana would get the win, though he was out of the game by that point already, and pull his win-loss record to 5-8 with an earned run average (ERA) of 3.69.

In the American League (with the designated hitter), an ERA under 4.00 suggests good efforts, and certainly would seem to merit at least a .500 win-loss record.

The next step is to look at other statistics, including the underlying metrics that have resulted in Santana's record, to assess what kind of season he is truly having.

The first next thing I'd look at (and, in fact, something I typically look at even before Wins and ERA) is WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched).

A good benchmark for WHIP is 1.00.

If a pitcher is surrendering one batter per inning, he's probably doing pretty well.

For Strat-O-Matic, pitchers with WHIP's much above 1.20 tend to have sub-standard and perhaps unusable pitching cards.

After carrying a no-hitter into the sixth, Santana ended up pitching 7-2/3 innings, giving up three hits and one walk. His WHIP for this game, then, was 4/7.67, or a miniscule 0.52.

On the season, this outing lowered his WHIP to 1.23, borderline for a starter in our league, but perhaps alright behind Tommy Hanson, James Shields, and Jhoulys Chacin, Meadows rotation mates who are closer to 1.00 WHIP's.

For his career coming into 2011, Santana had amassed a 76-55 record, with an ERA of 4.39, a WHIP of 1.32, 9.03 hits allowed per nine innings, 2.88 walks per nine, 1.16 home runs per nine, and 7.21 strikeouts per nine.

What's interesting is that WHIP doesn't include batters hit by pitch, though really that is analogous to a walk in that the pitcher puts a runner on by the pitcher's own doing.

Santana's WHAHBIP (walks, hits, and hit batters per inning pitched) was 1.38 coming into 2011.

The 2008 season was Santana's career year so far, as he achieved his highest strikeout rate (8.79 per nine innings) and best batting average against (.237) to go with the 1.12 WHIP, 3.49 ERA, and 16-7 win-loss record.

Santana's 2011 ERA of 3.69 would be his second best, and his WHIP of 1.23 would tie for 2nd best. His 7.32 K/9 would be his third best, and the best since his career-high 2008. All-in-all, a fine season, but will it be good enough to be a quality fourth starter in The Stratomatic League?

Advanced pitching metrics attempt to assess how well a pitcher has pitched independent of luck, defense, ballpark, and other performance-affecting variables.

First, luck.

Voros McCracken found, somewhat surprisingly, that pitcher's vary wildly from season to season in what happens to balls that are put into play (that don't end up being home runs). The statistic he investigated, BABIP (batting average on balls in play) vacillated from season to season, even for premier pitchers.

Whether one agrees with the premise of minimal pitcher control over BABIP or not, an elevated one suggests some bad luck for the pitcher (good luck for the hitter) while a depressed one suggests good fortune.

For example, last year Austin Jackson of the Detroit Tigers had a BABIP of nearly .400. This fueled a good batting average, but many analysts expected a drop-off in 2011, as that BABIP was not thought to be "sustainable."

Santana's BABIP in 2011 is .281, so if Major League average BABIP is around .290 this doesn't suggest extraordinary luck either way.

Another statistic that might represent some element of luck is "Strand Rate." Essentially, this is the percentage of runners "inherited" by subsequent pitchers who are "stranded" on base (i.e., do not end up scoring).

The Major League average strand rate is around 75%, so if more runners are being stranded, and their isn't evidence of an excellent bullpen doing so, that may be expected to regress over time back to average (thereby inflating final statistics).

Santana's strand rate is right on the mark at 75.2%, so no worries there.

Finally, the rate at which fly balls turn into home runs might have some element of luck. The Major League average is about 10-11% of fly balls becoming home runs, and Santana's rate in 2011 is 10.0%. A modicum of luck, perhaps, but since his career mark is actually slightly lower than that, at 9.7%, he's probably okay.

Next might be to take a look at the kinds of balls that are being hit off Santana.

Since ground balls turn into outs roughly 50% of the time and can turn into double plays, pitchers who get a lot of grounders can be very effective (especially with a good infield defense behind them).

Santana's career ground ball percentage entering 2011 was 37.6%...certainly not an extreme ground-baller, and in 2011 he's hit his career highest at 41.1%.

Line drives, on the other hand, turn into hits much more frequently than do grounders (around 75% of the time, compared to roughly 50%).

Santana's line drive percentage this year, 18.0%, would be his lowest since 2006.

Finally, non-home run fly balls tend to be outs most of the time, but since some of them turn into home runs, especially in certain ballparks, it's risky to have a fly ball pitcher. Santana is posting his lowest fly ball mark of his career at 40.9%.

Strikeouts are up, though not at a career high, ground balls are up, line drives are down, fly balls are down...seems like a better season than 5-8 and a 1.23 WHIP.

He's throwing slightly more fastballs than in 2010 (58.8% to 58.1%), and on average they're slightly faster (92.6 MPH vs. 92.5 MPH). He's upped his usage of the slider, a pitch that can be damaging to the throwing elbow, but it is his only positive offering according to pitch type values found at FanGraphs.com.

Santana is getting batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone more than he has in any season other than his excellent 2008, but unlike 2008 when batters made contact only 53.6% of the time on pitches outside the zone, this year they're at 63.1%.

He seems to be pitching more to contact on the one hand, and doing so effectively based on grounder and line drive rates, and striking out guys when he needs to on the other. The other noteworthy aspect of his season is that he is throwing first-pitch strikes 65.1% of the time, which would be the second highest mark of his career if he were to maintain it.

Where does all of this leave us?

Some advanced metrics attempt to "normalize" ERA, and have labels like ERA- (ERA standardized for ball park and league, with 100 being average and lower better), FIP (fielding independent pitching), FIP- (FIP standardized for ball park and league, with 100 average and lower better), xFIP (estimated FIP based on 10.5% HR/FB rate), xFIP- (xFIP standardized for ball park and league, with 100 average and lower better), tERA (an estimator based on batted ball types), and SIERA (skill independent ERA). Whew.

Recall that Santana's ERA this year is 3.69 after last night's game. Here are the other measures.

ERA- (lower than 100 is good): 96

Same as 2010 when ERA was 3.92.

FIP: 3.84 (0.15 higher than ERA)

Better than 4.28 in 2010 (0.36 higher than actual).

FIP- (lower than 100 is good): 99

Better than the 104 posted in 2010.

xFIP: 3.68 (0.01 lower than ERA)

Better than 4.31 in 2010.

xFIP- (lower than 100 is good): 94

Better than the 103 of 2010.

tERA: 4.00 (0.31 higher than actual ERA)

Better than the rather ugly 4.79 in 2010.

SIERA: 3.66 (0.03 less than actual ERA)

Compared to 2010's 4.26 SIERA, which was 0.34 higher than his actual ERA.

In 2011, Ervin Santana is pitching as well as his ERA would indicate, and has generally been effective, but has a win-loss record of only 5-8 to show for it.

Lack of run support must be the answer. Indeed, the Angels have given him 55 runs of support in his 21 starts, just over two and a half runs per game.

In 2010, they provided him with 130 runs in his 33 starts, closer to four runs per game.

And there you have it.

So the premise is that a win like this would build Santana's confidence for the rest of the way...we shall see about that (fingers firmly crossed).

Carlos Santana vs. Alex Avila

In a Baseball Prospectus article I just read, the author extolled the virtues of Alex Avila, currently leading the Detroit Tigers in "Wins Above Replacement Player" (WARP or WAR).

Since I triple-own Carlos Santana, I thought I'd look into it further (not that I can get Avila, who resides with Buster Posey and Chris Ianetta on the Goths).

Here is the reply I posted to the article:

Thanks for the article.

Avila's having a great season, but BP projections seem to think he's over his head (rest of season projections):

PA AVG HR R RBI SB TAv WARP
225 .249 5 26 23 1 .258 0.7

His overall stats also mask a platoon risk, though he's been very, very good against righties (.902 OPS vs. rhp/ .673 vs. lhp).

However, his BABIP of .377 against righties may correct from here on out, and his line of .269/.365/.487 is 80th percentile PECOTA for average, 90% for on base, and literally off the charts for slugging and True Average.

Santana, on the other hand, performing so far in 2011 somewhere in his 20%-30% PECOTA range, is projected to pull close to Avila in WARP by season's end, 4.1 to 4.0, and provides on base vs. lefties and power vs. righties.

235 .257 9 31 29 1 .294 1.8

Asdrubal Cabrera will still probably lead the Indians in WAR, but I'll bet Miguel Cabrera will be there by the end for the Tigers.

While I'm bummed I missed out on Avila in our Strat draft two years ago (he went late in the second round and I had targeted the fourth), I'm thrilled I grabbed Santana with the overall #4 pick this year (Heyward, Posey, Bautista went prior).

Carlos Santana, despite the low average, has "Avila Ways."

Ranking Keeper Shortstops

Continuing our strength up the middle focus, we’ll move on to shortstops.

Before the 2011 season, there was a consensus set of top shortstops.

Top Tier –

Hanley Ramirez, FLA – production everywhere, but substandard shortstop defense

Troy Tulowitzki, COL – power, average, stolen bases, and great defense

Elvis Andrus, TEX – speed and defense, but not much power

Jose Reyes, NYM – speed and offensive performance, but an injury risk

Next Tier –

Stephen Drew, AZ – under the radar in Arizona, but better than brother J.D.

Jimmy Rollins, PHI – injuries and age are taking their toll

Derek Jeter, NYY – decline phase finally here?

Alexei Ramirez, CHA – tons of promise, but falls short of elite every year

Promising Young Guys –

Starlin Castro, CHC – hitting .300 as a 20-year old in the majors is something, but limited power

Ian Desmond, WAS – defense still a work in progress, but Nats seem committed

Some positive attributes –

Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE – hit for average and stole bases two seasons ago

Yunel Escobar, TOR – traded mid-season to Toronto last year, steady performer

Alcides Escobar, KC – traded from Milwaukee in Greinke deal, good speed

Erick Aybar, LAA – quietly turns in decent stats every year

Jhonny Peralta, DET – perhaps better suited to third base, but Tigers play him at short

J.J. Hardy, BAL – injury-marred couple of seasons, new start in Baltimore

Also-rans –

Cliff Pennington, OAK – switch-hitter has good speed, limited power

Marco Scutaro, BOS – one good season three years ago, but little competition in Boston

Reid Brignac, TB – projections for up to 14 home runs, and given the starting job

Tsuyoshi Nishioka, MIN – Japanese import should hit well and run often, but power?

Alexi Casilla, MIN – will play at second or short

Brendan Ryan, SEA – defense-first shortstop

Alex Gonzalez, ATL – resurgent 2010, but wrong side of 30 and never has good OBP

Yuniesky Betancourt, MIL – are the Brewers, hoping to contend, really going with him?

Clint Barmes, HOU – Rockies’ cast-off looks for new life

Ryan Theriot, STL – scrappy under-powered option

Paul Janish, CIN – great defense, but can he hit major league pitching?

Edgar Renteria, CIN – S.F. Giants’ World Series hero was possibly last hurrah

(Zack Cozart, CIN) – the future in Cincinnati…Barry Larkin Lite?

d’Arnaud, PIT – Chase or Travis, a young guy with the Pirates

Brandon Wood, PIT – AA masher takes his under-performing MLB stats to Pittsburgh

Ronny Cedeno, PIT – career utility guy

Miguel Tejada, SF – bad signing by the Giants

Brandon Crawford, SF – good defense, but vapid offense

Jason Bartlett, SD – tough ballpark for a declining offensive player

Rafael Furcal, LA – health is a skill, and Furcal’s been out frequently recently

Dee Gordon, LA – the future in la-la-land, but again, can he hit?

Tim Beckham, TB – former first overall pick keeps plugging in minors

So how are these shortstops performing so far in 2011? The following are ranked in order of descending OPS (on base plus slugging percentages):

RK PLAYER R 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS SO AVG OBP SLG OPS

1 Jose Reyes 68 22 16 3 32 30 6 27 .349 .392 .522 .914

2 Jhonny Peralta 42 17 3 15 54 0 2 53 .317 .364 .533 .898

3 Troy Tulowitzki 48 23 2 18 64 6 2 41 .277 .346 .499 .844

4 Asdrubal Cabrera 60 23 3 17 60 12 1 72 .292 .344 .496 .840

5 Yunel Escobar 53 16 3 9 38 3 1 46 .301 .380 .442 .823

6 J.J. Hardy 38 15 0 14 37 0 0 50 .273 .330 .487 .817

7 Starlin Castro 53 25 8 3 42 11 2 54 .303 .333 .425 .758

8 Erick Aybar 40 20 5 7 41 20 2 46 .284 .320 .437 .757

9 Jimmy Rollins 60 16 1 11 42 19 2 39 .277 .344 .410 .753

10 Alexei Ramirez 54 21 1 9 41 3 3 51 .272 .331 .406 .737

Jose Reyes, on the strength of his sixteen triples, has the second highest slugging percentage among shortstops, behind Jhonny Peralta’s .533. Troy Tulowitzki leads shortstops in home runs with eighteen, and the resurgent Asdrubal Cabrera has hit a career-high seventeen (to go along with 12 steals), amassing about the same OPS as Tulo.

Peralta, Cabrera, Yunel Escobar, J.J. Hardy, Starlin Castro, and Erick Aybar have turned in surprisingly strong performances so far.

Alexei Ramirez is the sixth best shortstop in the American League on this dimension, and before the season I would have placed him behind only Elvis Andrus (though others liked Derek Jeter as well), and even that would have been questionable. Ramirez was the A.L. shortstop I was targeting in my two A.L. only fantasy leagues (I got him in one, he was another team’s keeper in the other).

11 Hanley Ramirez 52 13 0 10 42 17 6 59 .249 .338 .394 .732

12 Jamey Carroll 36 12 4 0 8 5 0 35 .288 .361 .358 .719

13 Stephen Drew 44 21 5 5 45 4 4 74 .252 .317 .396 .713

14 Elvis Andrus 60 13 1 3 34 28 5 48 .285 .338 .352 .690

15 Derek Jeter 45 14 1 3 25 9 3 43 .264 .324 .343 .667

In this next five, we see Hanley Ramirez, Stephen Drew, Elvis Andrus, and Derek Jeter, all ranked more highly before the season. Ramirez isn’t hitting for average or slugging so far, and his .338 on base is below average, but he has stolen seventeen bases.

Drew is slugging better but getting on base less than Ramirez, Andrus is getting on base the same as Ramirez (but slugging less), while contributing 28 stolen bases, and Jeter is neither getting on base nor slugging, with his nine steals the only positive fantasy contributions.

And Jamey Carroll, with his on base higher than slugging ways, has been “money in the bank” for the bankrupt Dodgers. When I traded him two seasons ago in Strat, I didn’t expect he would turn in any more useable cards, but he has continued to have good utility value.

16 Ryan Theriot 35 17 0 1 32 4 4 30 .278 .325 .338 .663

17 Brendan Ryan 35 14 2 1 27 8 2 56 .263 .324 .331 .655

18 Yuniesky Betancourt 31 14 2 7 34 3 3 30 .248 .267 .368 .636

19 Jason Bartlett 40 11 3 1 23 21 6 58 .251 .317 .309 .626

20 Alcides Escobar 44 14 4 2 30 14 6 43 .251 .290 .332 .623

21 Cliff Pennington 29 11 1 3 24 6 8 55 .247 .296 .317 .613

22 Alex Gonzalez 38 16 1 8 32 1 0 87 .224 .258 .339 .597

23 Ian Desmond 34 14 3 3 25 20 4 85 .226 .268 .312 .580

With on base percentages at .325 or below, and slugging percentages under .375 in each case, these shortstops are barely adequate offensively.

As for defense, Strat-O-Matic rates them as follows in the 2010 card set:

Theriot, ss-4e18

Ryan, ss-1e22

Betancourt, ss-3e19

Bartlett, ss-2e14

A. Escobar, ss-2e25

Pennington, ss-2e27

Gonzalez, ss-2e20

Desmond, ss-3e40

Ryan has the best range (rating of 1), with Bartlett’s, Escobar’s, Pennington’s, and Gonzalez’s a tick behind. Betancourt and Desmond have limited range for shortstop.

As for the “e” rating, that is supposed to denote how many errors the player would make over the course of an entire season at that position. All of these guys are double-digit error types, which is not unusual at shortstop in Strat (the best error rating for a ss-1 is Troy Tulowitzki’s ss-1e14, with Elvis Andrus’s ss-1e18 and Alexei Ramirez’s ss-1e21 the only other 1’s in the set).

Finally, let’s take a look at how shortstops are doing in 2011 against right-handed pitching (the most prominent form in both MLB and Strat-O-Matic).

RK PLAYER R 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS SO AVG OBP SLG OPS

1 Jose Reyes 53 16 14 3 23 21 5 20 .359 .399 .556 .954

2 Jhonny Peralta 32 12 2 10 40 0 2 31 .336 .376 .537 .913

3 Drew Sutton 9 6 0 0 6 0 0 7 .333 .389 .515 .904

4 Asdrubal Cabrera 48 15 3 14 44 8 0 58 .286 .347 .520 .867

5 J.J. Hardy 26 11 0 11 27 0 0 37 .277 .330 .495 .825

6 Erick Aybar 28 15 4 5 29 16 2 36 .311 .344 .478 .822

7 Zack Cozart 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 3 .333 .333 .476 .810

8 Troy Tulowitzki 33 14 2 12 43 5 2 32 .265 .332 .466 .799

9 Jimmy Rollins 43 13 1 9 33 16 2 32 .287 .363 .434 .797

10 Yunel Escobar 37 9 1 8 30 3 1 36 .290 .369 .419 .788

Reyes remains the cream-of-the-crop here as well, with Peralta and A. Cabrera also making really good showings.

J.J. Hardy’s .330 OBP is below average, but the righty has slugged nearly .500 against righties. Rollins and Y. Escobar are both getting on base well but being out-slugged by Aybar.

Tulowitzki has done most of his damage against lefties this season.

Drew Sutton, after absolutely mashing lefties in 2010, has turned it around in 2011, hitting much better against righties in his limited plate appearances.

Zack Cozart has started his major league career on a good note.

Of these, Tulowitzki and Sutton are on the Charlottesville Meadows, my Strat team.

11 Josh Wilson 6 4 0 0 1 1 0 4 .321 .321 .464 .786

12 Starlin Castro 43 19 6 2 34 8 1 41 .298 .328 .417 .746

13 Trevor Plouffe 12 2 0 4 10 1 0 15 .179 .313 .429 .742

14 Alexei Ramirez 39 17 1 7 36 0 2 39 .270 .323 .411 .733

15 Stephen Drew 38 15 3 4 28 3 3 45 .263 .326 .403 .728

16 Diory Hernandez 3 1 0 1 4 0 0 3 .273 .273 .455 .727

17 Jamey Carroll 22 10 2 0 7 3 0 26 .295 .365 .362 .727

18 Clint Barmes 24 14 0 5 16 1 0 37 .254 .312 .411 .723

19 Marco Scutaro 23 5 0 4 14 1 1 17 .254 .327 .377 .704

20 Jesus Guzman 2 3 0 1 8 0 0 5 .231 .231 .462 .692

21 Elvis Andrus 45 11 1 2 24 18 3 38 .280 .331 .351 .682

Andrus’s overall OBP is .338, so he’s doing marginally worse against righties at .331.

Castro continues to hit, but doesn’t draw walks or show much power.

Former prospect Trevor Plouffe has shown some good pop in limited plate appearances, as has Jesus Guzman, whom I’m really surprised qualifies at shortstop. I think of him as a hulking former Giants’ prospect.

22 Yuniesky Betancourt 27 12 2 7 30 2 2 27 .251 .268 .398 .666

23 Hanley Ramirez 37 6 0 7 31 15 5 49 .230 .312 .345 .656

24 Brendan Ryan 25 10 1 0 20 7 1 37 .274 .320 .327 .647

When you were a consensus top shortstop pick entering the season and your OPS against righties falls between Y. Betancourt and B. Ryan, you’re not having a good season. Meet Hanley Ramirez.

25 Alcides Escobar 32 11 4 2 25 11 4 31 .252 .289 .350 .639

26 Ronny Cedeno 20 11 1 2 20 1 3 39 .243 .289 .346 .635

27 Luis Rodriguez 4 4 0 1 10 1 1 10 .189 .313 .321 .633

28 Jason Bartlett 28 9 3 1 20 15 4 37 .247 .313 .316 .629

29 Ryan Theriot 26 11 0 1 27 3 3 27 .257 .303 .314 .617

30 Mike Fontenot 9 7 1 1 6 3 1 18 .202 .286 .330 .616

31 Eduardo Nunez 11 6 0 0 8 9 3 11 .253 .297 .316 .613

32 Blake Davis 3 0 1 0 3 1 1 10 .212 .333 .273 .606

33 Tsuyoshi Nishioka 5 1 0 0 7 2 3 13 .243 .346 .257 .603

34 Cliff Pennington 20 8 1 2 16 4 3 47 .235 .293 .305 .598

35 Angel Sanchez 21 8 0 1 21 3 0 28 .248 .281 .317 .597

36 Derek Jeter 28 9 1 1 21 6 3 37 .244 .290 .303 .592

The end of Jeter’s career seems near, and his troubles against righties are huge this year.

37 Brandon Crawford 12 2 0 2 14 1 3 13 .212 .306 .280 .586

Crawford clearly provides better defense for the Giants than Miguel Tejada or other internal options like Mike Fontenot, Emmanuel Burriss, or (now) Jeff Keppinger, but little to no offense.

38 Juan Castro 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 .286 .286 .286 .571

39 Ian Desmond 20 11 2 1 20 15 2 65 .231 .262 .303 .565

40 Jed Lowrie 15 5 2 0 7 0 0 32 .206 .280 .278 .557

As mentioned above, in Strat the Meadows are anchored by Troy Tulowitzki, arguably the best shortstop card in the set (Lamanna has his as the second best card overall in 2010, behind only Josh Hamilton’s…Hanley Ramirez’s is #14 and Elvis Andrus’s #29).

Drew Sutton is joined by Jed Lowrie and Reid Brignac on the roster.

Though Lowrie is #40 in OPS vs. righties, check out his numbers so far vs. lefties:

1 Mike Fontenot 2 3 1 1 5 1 0 8 .345 .459 .621 1.080

2 Jesus Guzman 4 3 1 1 6 1 0 3 .394 .429 .636 1.065

3 Jed Lowrie 10 6 1 3 18 0 1 6 .386 .397 .629 1.026

4 Hanley Ramirez 15 7 0 3 11 2 1 10 .323 .432 .581 1.013

5 Craig Counsell 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 .333 .333 .667 1.000

Josh Rodriguez 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 1.000 .000 1.000

Everth Cabrera 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000

8 Troy Tulowitzki 15 9 0 6 21 1 0 9 .309 .382 .588 .969

Since both Lowrie and Sutton have played third, second, and first this year in addition to shortstop (with Sutton also playing left field, a potential trouble spot for the Meadows), they probably will both make the 2011 Meadows 25-man roster, with Lowrie taking over at third for Pablo Sandoval against lefties, and, if he gets enough plate appearances, Sutton possibly starting over Pedroia or Tulowitzki against particularly tough righties.

In Pine Tar and Cold Beer, I have Alexei Ramirez, whom I thought was a clear keeper. As an A.L.-only league with eight teams and a middle infield slot to fill as well as 2b and shortstop, the options for a quality shortstop seem to disappear quickly.

In L.A. Slackers, I started the year with Reid Brignac and Mike Aviles, and have moved to J.J. Hardy, a brief fling with Erick Aybar, and back to Hardy. Not a keeper.

Best baseball names

Players on my BP Team Tracker Watch List simply because of their names (though many of these have value more in the first name, kind of negating the back-of-the-uniform value):

Socrates Brito, of, ARI
Jhondervisth Caracas, p, FLA
Jetsy Extrano, 2b, SEA
Elvis Familia, dh, BAL
Rowdy Hardy, p, ATL
Dusty Harvard, of, CHA
Boss Moanaroa, 1b, BOS
Moko Moanaroa, lf, BOS
Dusty Napoleon, c, OAK
Gift Ngoepe, 2b, PIT
Nelalexfred Ortega, 2b, WAS
Riswish Ramirez, if, PHI
Rebel Ridling, 1b, CHN
Chris Seigfried, p, CHN (for opera or Get Smart fans)
Sequoyah Stonecipher, of, FLA
Damon Sublett, of, NYA
Beamer Weems, ss, SDN
Jake Wild, p, SEA

And I certainly would have just added Rougned Odor, but he's not in the database (only Teodoro Martinez, of, TEX, and Jake Odorizzi, p, MIL)...

As for Odor, I Googled and ended up at a Rangers' site. No answer there on pronunciation (other than saying his last name is pronounced "Oh-Door," and he goes by "Roo" or "Rougie"), but what was kind of funny is that the banner ad was for Gillette Odor Shield.

Ranking Keeper Second Basemen

Since one of the key adages in building a baseball team is "strength up the middle," we'll move from catcher to middle infield slots with the next two installments.

Again, if I go around the major leagues in my mind, these are the top second basemen:

Top tier -

Robinson Cano, NYY – elite player
Ian Kinsler, TEX – solid contributor, but an injury risk annually
Dustin Pedroia, BOS – does it all and does it well

Next tier -

Chase Utley, PHI – age is a concern, as well as injury
Ben Zobrist, TB – after spectacular 2009, cooled off in 2010, back in 2011
Brandon Phillips, CIN – defense, on base, speed
Rickie Weeks, MIL – offensively a force now

Promising rookies -

Dustin Ackley, SEA – may not hit for the power expected coming out of the draft, but should hit for average with gap power, draw some walks, and steal some bases
Jemile Weeks, OAK – speed, but what else?
Danny Espinosa, WAS – stellar 2010 in the minors/majors, though still has rookie status…ROY candidate

Perhaps relevant, but not top tier -

Aaron Hill, TOR – brutal 2010, driven by abnormally-low BABIP; rebounded some
Mark Ellis, COL – trade to Colorado from Oakland should help his offense
Howie Kendrick, LAA – will he ever win the much-predicted batting title?
Gordon Beckham, CHA – prospect has struggled other than 1^st ½ season and 2^nd half ‘10
Jacob Turner, NYN – playing solidly as a surprise in the Big Apple
Dan Uggla, ATL – struggled mightily early
Neil Walker, PIT – a key part of the Pirates’ surprising success
Darwin Barney, CHN – rookie has gotten on base some, not much else

Brian Roberts, BAL – injured, again
Chris Getz, KC – decent speed, not much else
Carlos Guillen, DET – just back from an 11-month injury layoff
Will Rhymes, DET – is he still with Detroit, or did he move to the Cubs?
Alexi Casilla, MIN – won’t ever hit for much power
Tyoyoshi Nishioka, MIN – broken leg derailed his season, not much so far
Orlando Cabrera, CLE – best years are behind him
Orlando Hudson, SD – still good defensively?
Freddy Sanchez, SF – injured and out likely for the season, was doing okay
Mike Fontenot, SF – better against lefties in 2011, despite being lefty himself
Jeff Keppinger, SF – newest Giant has always played utility role and hit lefties
Emmanuel Burriss, SF – decent defense, no offense, some speed
Jonathan Herrera, COL – thought he’d be something, but lost starting job

Skip Schumaker, STL – better as an outfielder
Clint Barmes, HOU – also plays shortstop
Kelly Johnson, AZ – big season first year in Arizona, not since
Juan Uribe, LAD – Dodgers overpaid for this production
Jamey Carroll, LAD – Scrappy, good on base, versatile, no power

A couple of minor league prospects who may play in 2011 -

Jason Kipnis, CLE – fans are clamoring for his call-up
Brett Lawrie, TOR (though he will likely be a 3b in the majors)

Within ESPN fantasy leagues with standard scoring, here are the 2b rankings so far (7/21/11):

1 Dustin Pedroia, Bos 2B 9.65

2 Robinson Cano, NYY 2B 8.57

3 Rickie Weeks, Mil 2B 8.02

4 Ian Kinsler, Tex 2B 7.99

5 Michael Young, Tex 3B, 1B, 2B, DH 7.28

6 Michael Cuddyer, Min OF, 1B, 2B 6.82

7 Ben Zobrist, TB 2B, OF 6.53

8 Danny Espinosa, Was 2B 6.42

9 Ryan Roberts, Ari OF, 2B, 3B 6.07

10 Neil Walker, Pit 2B 5.98

Given that I have Dustin Pedroia, supplemented by Howie Kendrick, in Strat-O-Matic, I'm pretty pleased with this.

While Cano or Kinsler would perhaps be better, Pedroia's 2b-1e6 is very solid (Cano is a 2b-1e3 and Kinsler a 2b-2e11, still very good), his on base in 2010 was as good as Cano's against righties and better against lefties, and he steals bases, which Cano doesn't.

For 2010, John Lamanna, who publishes card ratings and expert opinion for Strat-O-Matic baseball gamers, ranks Cano the top second baseman (third best card in the entire set overall), Pedroia second best at second (and fifth best card overall), Utley third (nineteenth best card), and Kinsler fourth (thirty-eighth overall).

Pedroia is clearly one of the top three to build on, and less an injury risk than Kinsler.

In L.A. Slackers, Kinsler is my second baseman and a likely keeper every year.

In Pine Tar and Cold Beer, Dustin Ackley and Jemile Weeks are rostered, with Ackley being the closest to a keeper there. As minor leaguers to start the season, neither has accrued much value thus far.

Up-and-comer Danny Espinosa is someone else to keep an eye on and grab in your league if available. Ryan Roberts has had a fine season for Arizona, playing mostly third base and left field. In fact, I may well target him as my left fielder for next year (he’s a free agent in our league) if Travis Snider doesn’t end up with a good enough card.

11 Brandon Phillips, Cin 2B 5.77

12 Howard Kendrick, LAA 2B, 1B, OF 4.75

13 Daniel Murphy, NYM 1B, 2B, 3B 4.65

14 Kelly Johnson, Ari 2B 3.99

15 Martin Prado, Atl 2B, 3B, OF 3.58

16 Ty Wigginton, Col 3B, 1B, 2B, OF 3.43

17 Darwin Barney, ChC SS, 2B 2.94

18 Chris Getz, KC 2B 2.49

19 Alexi Casilla, Min 2B, SS 2.35

20 Aaron Hill, Tor 2B 2.00

Howie Kendrick, another Meadow, has put in a solid season and also has versatility by having played first base and left field. Daniel Murphy and Ty Wigginton are somewhat under the radar, and Aaron Hill has rebounded a bit from an abysmal 2010.

21 Ryan Theriot, StL SS, 2B 1.77

22 Maicer Izturis, LAA 2B, 3B, SS 1.68

23 Gordon Beckham, CWS 2B 1.66

24 Justin Turner, NYM 2B, 3B 1.54

25 Adam Kennedy, Sea 2B, 1B, 3B, DH 1.53

26 Aaron Miles, LAD 2B, 3B 1.41

27 Orlando Cabrera, Cle SS, 2B 1.40

28 Brent Lillibridge, CWS 2B, OF 1.29

29 Chase Utley, Phi 2B 1.24

30 Dan Uggla, Atl 2B 1.19

Former top prospect Gordon Beckham is struggling this year as he did the first half of 2010. He came on in the second half then, but will he now? He’s hitting .327/.351/.382 in July (still little power, but decent average and on base).

Free agent signing Dan Uggla has “StrUGGLAed” in 2011, but has come on a bit of late. I was surprised to see he has 17 home runs as part of his .193/.265/.380 line.

Brent Lillibridge has been solid in part-time action, and will likely have a good utility Strat card for 2011.

31 Jamey Carroll, LAD 2B, SS 0.83

32 Mark Ellis, Col 2B 0.69

33 Jemile Weeks, Oak 2B DTD 0.57

34 Orlando Hudson, SD 2B 0.57

35 Jeff Keppinger, SF 2B 0.39

36 Freddy Sanchez*, SF 2B 0.27

37 Mike Aviles, KC 2B, 3B 0.17

38 Omar Infante, Fla 2B, 3B, OF 0.00

39 Jed Lowrie*, Bos SS, 2B, 3B -0.12

40 Jerry Hairston Jr., Was SS, 2B, 3B, OF -0.26

Mark Ellis has responded to his trade to a more hitter-friendly ballpark in his time with the Rockies, Jemile Weeks will be a lovely source of steals in fantasy (whether he’ll hit enough or be good enough defensively for a good Strat card may be another question), and Jed Lowrie has produced decent numbers the last two years, when he’s been healthy (an extra base hit of some kind every 9.175 at bats).

41 Daniel Descalso, StL 3B, 2B -0.30

42 Ryan Raburn, Det OF, 2B -0.31

43 Angel Sanchez, Hou SS, 2B -0.42

44 Clint Barmes, Hou 2B, SS -0.50

45 Matt Downs, Hou 2B, 3B -0.64

46 Sean Rodriguez, TB 2B, 3B, SS, OF -0.89

47 Robert Andino, Bal 2B, SS -0.92

48 Brian Roberts*, Bal 2B -0.97

49 Scott Sizemore, Oak 2B, 3B -0.98

50 Jeff Baker, ChC 2B, 1B, 3B -1.03

Sean Rodriguez is supposed to have promise, but has not produced much so far as a semi-regular in Tampa Bay. Scott Sizemore, dumped by Detroit despite their needing a second baseman, has done well in his time in Oakland (before a pitch to the face knocked him out of action).

51 Skip Schumaker, StL 2B -1.04

52 Jonathan Herrera, Col 2B, SS -1.07

53 Dustin Ackley, Sea 2B -1.46

54 Blake DeWitt, ChC 2B, OF -1.48

55 Tyler Greene, StL SS, 2B -1.62

56 Luke Hughes, Min 3B, 1B, 2B -1.80

57 Juan Uribe, LAD 2B, 3B, SS -1.84

58 Mike Fontenot, SF 2B, 3B, SS -1.96

59 Jack Wilson, Sea SS, 2B -1.97

60 Bill Hall*, SF 2B, OF -1.98

Dustin Ackley is the only name to remember in the set of players above, and in fact, may be the last one to concern yourself with at all for the remainder of the list. Because he started the season in AAA, his aggregate numbers aren’t great, but he has hit for average, popped a few out of the park, stolen some bases, and has played acceptable-enough defense at second base.

Ackley has four home runs in his first 95 at bats, putting together a line of .284/.343/.505, and has stolen two bases without being caught. He has nine walks against sixteen strikeouts, perfectly reasonable (under 20% strikeouts).

A keeper at the position, if not all the way there yet.

61 Elliot Johnson, TB 2B, SS -1.98

62 Nick Punto, StL 3B, 2B, SS -2.01

63 Ruben Tejada, NYM SS, 2B -2.02

64 Wilson Valdez, Phi SS, 2B, 3B -2.03

65 Emmanuel Burriss, SF 2B -2.08

66 Eric Patterson, SD OF, 2B -2.14

67 Omar Vizquel, CWS 3B, 2B -2.26

68 John McDonald, Tor 2B, 3B, SS -2.29

69 Michael Martinez, Phi SS, 2B, OF -2.33

70 Jayson Nix, Tor 2B, 3B -2.36

Ruben Tejada was the Mets’ #9 prospect entering 2010, but now that it looks like the Mets are keeping Jose Reyes, Tejada’s future is likely as a second baseman.

Emmanuel Burriss has a shortstop’s arm at second base, is fairly good defensively, and can run a bit, but it’s not clear he can hit at the major league level.

71 Chris Nelson, Col 3B, 2B -2.52

72 Mike McCoy, Tor 2B, 3B -2.60

73 Chone Figgins, Sea 2B, 3B -2.67

74 Alberto Gonzalez, SD 2B, 3B, SS -2.78

75 Eric Young Jr., Col 2B -2.86

76 Felipe Lopez, TB 2B, 3B, SS -2.96

77 Ramon Santiago, Det 2B, SS -3.06

78 Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Min 2B, SS -3.06

79 Alex Cora, Was 2B, 3B, SS -3.08

80 Andres Blanco*, Tex 2B, SS -3.17

Chone Figgins has experienced a huge decline over the last two years, concomitant with his move to pitcher-haven Seattle.

Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka suffered a broken leg early and has not put up much since his return. Projected to hit high single digit/low double digit homeruns and contribute along the lines of twenty or more stolen bases, Yoshi carries a line of .233/.298/.267, with no home runs, two stolen bases, and three caught stealing in 120 at bats on the season.

81 Carlos Guillen, Det 2B -3.21

82 Reid Brignac, TB SS, 2B -3.24

83 Cord Phelps, Cle 2B -3.27

84 Pete Orr, Phi 2B -3.37

85 Jose Lopez, Fla 3B, 2B -3.42

86 Blake Davis, Bal SS, 2B -3.50

87 Matt Tolbert, Min 2B, SS -3.51

88 Will Rhymes, Det 2B -3.56

89 Chris Valaika, Cin 2B -3.58

90 Adam Rosales, Oak 2B -3.69

Reid Brignac, a Meadow I drafted as a prospect a few years ago, was handed the starting shortstop job in Tampa Bay after the departure of Jason Bartlett. He has struggled mightily, losing playing time to Elliott Johnson and occasionally Sean Rodriguez. I don’t think Ben Zobrist has played there this year.

91 Ryan Adams, Bal 2B -3.74

92 DJ LeMahieu, ChC SS, 2B -3.79

93 Eric Sogard, Oak 2B -3.82

94 Pete Kozma, StL SS, 2B -3.87

95 Logan Forsythe, SD 3B, 2B -3.92

96 Ivan De Jesus, LAD SS, 2B -3.99

97 Luis Valbuena, Cle 2B -4.02

98 Chin-lung Hu, NYM SS, 2B -4.11

99 Brad Emaus, NYM 2B -4.18

100 Julio Lugo, Atl 2B, SS -4.23

Eric Sogard was just recalled by Oakland, and was rated their #21 prospect by Baseball America entering the season. “He doesn’t have flashy tools, but he’s a baseball rat who has always hit.” Might be worth thinking about for the future.

All this is well and good, but in Strat-O-Matic where batting splits matter, it’s informative to check how players hit versus lefties and righties. I tend to weight OBP most highly, but OPS (on base plus slugging) would be another way to go.

Here are the top second basemen in 2011 in on base percentage against right-handed pitching (the majority of what is seen in the Major Leagues and in Strat):

RK Player Team AVE OBP SLG OPS

1 Guillen, C DET .385 .429 .615 1.044

2 Utley, C PHI .293 .383 .459 .842

3 Weeks, J OAK .330 .380 .440 .820

4 Downs, M HOU .276 .373 .586 .959

5 Kinsler, I TEX .255 .367 .456 .823

6 Zobrist, B TB .263 .363 .462 .825

7 Murphy, D NYM .311 .360 .446 .807

8 Nishioka, T MIN .254 .359 .269 .628

9 McCoy, M TOR .244 .358 .378 .736

10 Walker, N PIT .288 .352 .452 .804

11 Pedroia, D BOS .253 .347 .413 .760

12 Hudson, O SD .221 .343 .286 .629

13 Casilla, A MIN .268 .342 .392 .734

14 Weeks, R MIL .278 .342 .494 .836

15 Punto, N STL .268 .339 .411 .749

16 Kendrick, H LAA .287 .338 .399 .737

17 Sanchez, F SF .308 .335 .416 .751

18 Ackley, D SEA .261 .333 .464 .797

18 Davis, B BAL .212 .333 .273 .606

18 Kozma, P STL .111 .333 .222 .556

21 Beckham, G CWS .284 .328 .402 .730

22 Barney, D CHC .296 .327 .364 .691

23 Turner, J NYM .278 .325 .383 .708

24 Tejada, R NYM .242 .324 .267 .590

25 Herrera, J COL .237 .323 .283 .606

26 Espinosa, D WSH .227 .322 .435 .757

Carlos Guillen is just back from a year-long injury, but has done well in his very limited time back. Utley has been the best regular against right-handed pitching, after being better against lefties in 2010.

Jemile Weeks, a 24-year old switch-hitter, is better against righties with an above-average .380 on base percentage that way.

Matt Downs has thrived on playing time, but may be exposed if expected to be a regular.

Kinsler dominates Pedroia and where is Cano?

35 Cano, R NYY .272 .313 .496 .809

Ah, there he is, #35 in OBP vs. righties among second basemen. His slugging percentage of .496 ranks #1 among regulars, though, making his OPS sixth best among starters.

Zobrist and Walker are both valuable, and at least Nishioka gets on base some against righties.

Ackley is above average, and again merits keeper consideration.

In Pine Tar and Cold Beer, where I have he and Jemile Weeks, clear-cut keepers likely will be Carlos Santana, c, Adrian Gonzalez, 1b, and Jordan Walden, closer.

For my other two, Gio Gonzalez, starting pitcher, Nelson Cruz, of, and B.J. Upton, of, will be in the running with Ackley.