The 2011 Charlottesville Meadows

The Charlottesville Meadows are one of the entries in The Strat-O-Matic League, an 11-team keeper league with 50-man rosters (25-man active).

After having won the TSL World Series with 2001 cards (Barry Bonds' 73 homer year), a long run of rebuilding began. It finally seems to have come to fruition, as the team with 2010 cards is at 20-16 with 24 games to play (a .500 record qualifies for the playoffs).

However, several key players on the 2010 team took a step back in 2011 (e.g., Jayson Werth, Jack Cust, Carlos Santana), while a few became useful again (e.g., Carlos Beltran, Pablo Sandoval).

Here's how the team stands and what priorities are in approaching the draft in March 2012.

Strengths -

Double play combination of Dustin Pedroia and Troy Tulowitzki...young, solid defense, decent power and speed, but both less good against right handed pitching in 2011.

Defense, on base, and speed from center fielder Dexter Fowler...but he probably won't lead off.

Defense and great stick against righties from third baseman Pablo Sandoval.

Great stick against righties and good power against lefties from right fielder Carlos Beltran.

Solid stick both ways (slightly better against lefties, surprisingly) from first baseman David Ortiz.

Good 2nd catcher/pinch hitter against lefties Geovany Soto.

Best left-handed power against righties in pinch hitter/1b-5e9 Jason Giambi.

Best left-handed on base against righties in pinch hitter Drew Sutton.

Good outfield defense/pinch runner in Rajai Davis.

Good bunter in Drew Sutton.

Good starred starter in James Shields, decent starred starter in Ervin Santana.

Great reliever in Sergio Romo; good, but flawed, relievers in Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit.

Weaknesses -

At the moment, Howie Kendrick must start in left-field, and either Jason Giambi (limited to one plate appearance per game and a 1b-5e9) or David Ortiz (1b-5e24) must start at first to have any kind of offensive production from those spots. Getting an everyday first baseman and left fielder is mandatory to compete.

Carlos Santana has power but little else against right-handed pitching, but is better than Soto and there are no unlimited use catcher options available in the draft.

It would be nice to have one left-handed pinch hitter to do the work of Giambi and Sutton's two slots, but having looked at John Lamanna's projections, nobody comes close to either Giambi's 8 diamonds and 10.7 home runs or Sutton's 49 on base vs. righties.

Starting pitching beyond James Shields and Ervin Santana is weak, and neither of them is a true ace.

Relief pitching beyond Sergio Romo is suspect, though Liriano, Grant Balfour, and Joaquin Benoit could all make the team. Even Brian Duensing could have his uses, though he is ugly against righties.

Draft strategy -

And it's all about the pitching. The only starred starter I have seen in the draft is Doug Fister, and he becomes my highest priority after "can't miss" prospects. With Fister becoming the staff ace, James Shields slots at #2, Ervin Santana at #3, and a non-starred starter like Tommy Hanson (130 innings), Jhoulys Chacin (194 innings), a combination of Clay Buchholz (83 innings) and Francisco Liriano (134 innings) works okay.

If Fister goes before I pick in the 2nd round, then other options like Josh Collmenter, Philip Humber, Guillermo Moscoso, and Ryan Vogelsong are possible early replacements, though not starred.

For relief pitching, several lefties and righties improve upon Duensing, Benoit, Balfour, and Liriano, in that order. If Fister comes to us, then it's not as important to get a tremendous number of relief innings, but otherwise that will matter.

Lucas Duda is the best first base candidate I have seen whom I have a reasonable chance of snagging. Freddie Freeman and Eric Hosmer will undoubtedly go in the first round, and I'm not psyched about Mark Trumbo or Paul Goldschmidt. Brandon Belt and Anthony Rizzo are the only pure prospects I would take. But how early to target Duda?

For left field, an intriguing option is Nate Schierholtz. Previously a reversed lefty (he hit lefty pitchers better than he did righties), he's normal for 2011, with a low-ish on base of 35 against righties. But he has a modicum of power, runs well, and plays great defense, with the bonus of being even better in right field (thus allowing Rajai Davis to sub into left in Beltran's spot, with Schierholtz moving to right and making the defense even tighter). Similar to Duda, how low can I go and still get him? Seventh round? Gerardo Parra and Eric Thames are alternatives.

I feel like a have a good jump on draft prep, as it's still three months away...

Strat-O-Matic 2011 team is shaping up

From high to low in on base plus slugging percentage (OPS), this is how current Meadows are doing against right-handed pitching (the more relevant comparison) at this point about 80% of the way through the 2011 MLB season.

Unlimited guys:

David Ortiz, lh DH .290/.371/.547/.918
Pablo Sandoval, sh 3B/1B .318/.368/.539/
Carlos Beltran, sh RF/LF? .306/.412/.483/.894
Troy Tulowitzki, rh SS .290/.356/.517/.873
Adam Lind, lh 1B .258/.310/.477/.788
Dustin Pedroia, rh 2B .276/.355/.425/.780
Carlos Santana, sh C .215/.324/.429/.753
Dexter Fowler, sh CF .258/.348/.397/.745
Howie Kendrick, rh LF/2B/1B .278/.331/.401/.732

Limited guys:

Jason Giambi, lh DH, .277/.358/.663/1.021
Drew Sutton, sh UTIL .350/.395/.500/.895

Let's hope they hit lefties:

Matt LaPorta, rh 1B .247/.300/.429/.729
Jayson Werth, rh RF .241/.334/.392/.726
Travis Snider, lh LF .257/.312/.396/.708
Geovany Soto, rh C .231/.303/.396/.699
Jed Lowrie, sh UTIL .200/.262/.287/.549

In fact, against lefties the starting line-up changes only slightly (though the batting order switches around), with Jed Lowrie replacing Pablo Sandoval, Carlos Santana moving to first in Adam Lind's stead, and Geovany Soto moving in at catcher.

OPS against lefties, starting nine:

Dustin Pedroia, rh 2B .385/.500/.585/1.085
David Ortiz, lh DH .320/.424/.578/1.002
Troy Tulowitzki, rh SS .336/.399/.602/1.000
Jed Lowrie, sh 3B .375/.394/.568/.962
Geovany Soto, rh C .280/.400/.533/.933
Howie Kendrick, rh LF/2B/1B .319/.378/.519/.897
Carlos Santana, sh 1B/C .299/.405/.482/.887
Carlos Beltran, sh RF/LF? .227/.283/.527/.811
Dexter Fowler, sh CF .271/.404/.377/.780

Limited guys/bench guys:

Jason Giambi, lh DH .273/.407/.682/1.089
Pablo Sandoval, sh PH .282/.291/.462/.753
Adam Lind, lh 1B .275/.302/.413/.715

After looking at it, these guys don't make the team:

Jayson Werth, rh RF .185/.319/.370/.688
Matt LaPorta, rh 1B .213/.268/.347/.615

Thinking about Keepers

In L.A. Slackers, Harder's Hitters are still holding down first place, with a nine point lead.

First in runs, home runs, steals, and holds and second in runs batted in, saves, and strikeouts, it's been a successful run so far.

As I think about the five keepers I may want for 2012, here's where things stand.

1. Miguel Cabrera, 1b
2. Curtis Granderson, cf
3. Ian Kinsler, 2b

These three are elite players, even if they play at fairly deep positions in the A.L. Kinsler is an injury risk on an annual basis, and had I been able to move him at the trade deadline I may have been happy with Jason Kipnis, but what I may aim to do is draft Kipnis fairly high, then look to trade one next year.

4. Carlos Santana, c

Because this is an on base league, Santana's .354 isn't a problem, whereas his sub-.240 batting average is in leagues that use it. He will likely end up with mid-20's home runs and trails only Alex Avila and Victor Martinez in A.L. catcher value.

5. Felix Hernandez, sp or Nelson Cruz, rf

This is where it gets tough. Hernandez is not having quite as good a year as in 2010, but he's still one of the best starting pitcher options and would be hard to replace.

Or maybe not. Cruz plays a deep position, has a below average on base percentage, isn't stealing bases the way he used to, and is an injury risk.

Okay, so it's Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Ian Kinsler, Carlos Santana, and Felix Hernandez.

Stealing Signs?

There's a brouhaha about the Blue Jays stealing signs in the Rogers Centre (nee Skydome) early in 2010.

Though the Sports Illustrated report online and in their magazine didn't specify which team the relievers who verbally confronted Jose Bautista in a 2010 spring game were from, further research indicates it was the White Sox.

Now that surprises me, given that Ozzie Guillen is their manager. Given Guillen's mouthpiece, Twittering ways, wouldn't he have said something about his suspicions/these allegations if he had seen them? Does the code run that deep? Is it so other teams will also have to contend with it?

The article claims that these relievers had seen this in their last series with Toronto in 2009, but had let it go. Again, research says that was in May 2009. Will have to look into that.

Boston announcer Jerry Remy suggested shenanigans in June 2010 (or 2009?)...

Anyway, I've now viewed both the full and condensed games of the first three Blue Jays home games in 2010, coincidentally against the very same White Sox.

After the home opener, the games were pretty sparsely attended (12,167 in the second game after 46,000+ in the first, and according to the Sox announcers, smaller still the third), and though I've seen no smoking gun yet, there is definitely a person in white who kind of sticks out in the (non) crowd.

Additional research surfaced a video of Bautista and White Sox pitcher John Danks jawing after an infield pop-up in 2010, so I wonder if this was related...Danks was the starter in the third game, which I'm now in the midst of watching in its entirety. If I don't find anything, there was probably only one other time the White Sox visited Toronto in 2010.

[actually, there were none]

One bit of trivia is that for the third game of the set, Bautista hit lead-off, and was stuck at .161 with 1 home run and 4 rbi after 8 games...he drew a four-pitch walk against Danks to lead off the game to raise his on base percentage to .341 at least.

Okay, that's interesting. With one out in the bottom of the first, and Bautista on first, Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski starts running through multiple signs, and the announcers opine that that usually means they suspect the other team of "getting some signs."

They go on to talk more about it, so presumably the suspicion was surfaced in the first or second game of the series.

In the bottom of the third, with no outs and nobody on base, Pierzynski is still flashing multiple signs to Danks.

Bautista, in his second plate appearance, beats a 1-1 pitch into the turf and Danks makes a nice play to get off the mound and throw him out from near the third base line. Blue Jays with no hits through three.

Now no hits through four and trailing 7-0, Brandon Morrow having been knocked out.

The first hit for the Blue Jays comes with one out in the fifth, courtesy of Randy Ruiz ("one of the four strongest guys in the majors" according to one announcer, but where is he now?).

After Ruiz stole second (his first of the year, and the Sox weren't holding him on), Bautista singled sharply to left on a 1-1 pitch to drive him in.

Bottom of the 6th, now 11-1 White Sox.

Here's one interesting thing I'm noticing while watching this third game...there are no shots (at least on the White Sox broadcast) from directly behind home plate, facing the pitcher.

Will have to check the Jays' broadcast to see. [nope, nothing]

Now, it also occurs to me that the jawing that Bautista and the White Sox relievers engaged in, concerning as it did Bautista's hitting of home runs, probably came later in the spring, as he only had the one so far in 2010 and was scuffling at the plate. [nope, it was in the third game of this set]

Will have to look at the next series that the Sox came to town. [they didn't]

In Bautista's fourth plate appearance he struck out looking against reliever Tony Pena, fooled on a slider, and the final was 11-1 White Sox, Danks and Pena combining on a 2-hitter.

The next game I'm investigating is one against the Orioles in late 2009. Bautista had 7 home runs and was batting lead-off. Okay, nothing much there, though there are a few people dressed in white in the stands above and toward centre from the visitor's bullpen.

Let's check the White Sox's four-game visit to Toronto in May 2009, the 15th - 18th, a four-game sweep by the Blue Jays.

Nope, nothing.

[Later, after more research]

I pinned it down to the April 13, 2010 game, the third in the series. Ricky Romero was throwing a no-hitter for the Blue Jays for awhile as they built a 4-0 lead against Gavin Floyd.

Bautista was hitting lead-off, was still under .200, and had one home run on the season. Strange that the bullpen instigator would have yelled "it's not so easy to hit home runs when you don't know what's coming!"

He struck out in the bottom of the sixth, then the altercation apparently took place as he took the field in the top of the seventh. But in addition to watching the full and condensed videos of the game, I listened to both teams' broadcasts and there was absolutely no mention of it.

So, not much here, especially since Bautista went on to hit 53 more home runs in 2010, presumably without the help of the man dressed in white.

Best baseball fights

Okay, for a separate research project I ran across this video of the best baseball fights.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-sZzByuzMc&feature=related

First, about three fights in, notice the batter who gets hit with a pitch and then immediately dispenses the catcher...looks like he's had martial arts training!

And on the last one, from I suppose Japanese baseball, WTF???

Trade deadline thoughts

Along the lines of the more saves for holds with the ChowdaHeads, I looked at this more.

His major offensive weakness is at 2b, and if he got runs, rbi, and steals he could gain points on the teams ahead of him who happen to be my pursuers.

He has saves to spare, may be too far back in holds, and would benefit from more wins (whereas I'm pretty much resigned to 2nd to last in wins).

At first I thought centering a trade around Ian Kinsler made sense, plus he would send me Kyle Farnsworth for Rafael Soriano. Saves for holds and offense. As I have the very hot Jason Kipnis as well, I could plug him in at 2b, and maybe he'll even be a keeper.

But that seems very one-sided, so I'd want some empty power (i.e., no steals needed) coming back. Hideki Matsui would be one option, but he's not arguably better than Josh Willingham, who is a free agent in this league. Carlos Quentin would be more attractive, but he may not see Kinsler for Quentin as enough value. I don't think Quentin's a keeper, whereas I do think Kinsler is, for what it's worth.

So we're emailing, and I'll be curious what it will eventually take to get Farnsworth, and whether it is worth pulling the trigger on something as extreme as Kinsler plus Soriano for Farnsworth.

Advent of relief pitching

Here's something I came up with for a Baseball Games list I belong to in response to the following query:

> ... yesterday i was looking at some older
> APBA sets that i have (before 1950) and i noticed
> that rare are the pitchers identified as relievers.
> I was born in 1965 and started to follow baseball
> around 1974 and as far as i know, there has always
> been relieve pitchers.
> I know that way back in the past, starters were
> pitching entire games most of the time.
> So my question is: when can we consider that
> specialised relief pitchers appeared in MLB?
> Pitchers that were not there to start a game
> but to pitch in long or short relief.
> I have lots of books i could dig in but the
> best bunch of experts i know are here! I guess
> it is probably an easy question for those who
> know their baseball history.
> Thanks...
>

In 1956, Roy Face, who had appeared in relief
in 60 of his 83 major league games, started
only three games out of 68, followed by one
out of 59 in 1957, and none in 57 in 1958.

As he became exclusively a reliever, he compiled
a 21-21 record in those three seasons, bringing
his career win-loss record to 32-36. His ERA in
those three seasons was 3.52, 3.07, and 2.89,
and Fangraphs credits him with 36 saves in
those three years (with a high of 20).

Then in 1959, he went 18-1, appearing in 57 games
exclusively as a reliever, posting an ERA of 2.70,
but dropping from 20 saves to 10. Wonder how many
of those wins were his own blown saves where he
stayed in and got the win?

He would never start again, and would end his
career 104-95 with 193 saves and a 3.48 ERA.

Even earlier, in 1952 Hoyt Wilhelm began his
Giants' career solely in relief for six seasons,
appearing in 361 games. With the Orioles in
1958-61 he started 49 out of 163 games, and 3 of
55 for the White Sox in 1963, but that was it.
1070 games with only 52 starts. Wilhelm had
a 21-year career with a record of 143-122,
with 227 saves and a 2.52 ERA.

About the same time, Stu Miller came up with the
Cardinals, and after spending the 1952 season
as mostly a starter (11 out of 12 games), he
never again started as many as half his games
in a season, and didn't start at all his last
eight years.

He ended his sixteen year career with 154 saves,
and a 105-103 record to go with a 3.24 ERA.

I knew Face had the modern day win-loss percent
record, and knew he had done it (at least mostly)
in relief, but didn't know when that was or
the other particulars.

Are there examples from earlier than the 50's?

_____
And here are some comments that followed:

Good stuff, Joe, thanks for that. Another
late-1950s, early-1960s name that comes to mind
is Ryne Duren, and then a bit further into the
'60s Dick Radatz and Ron Perranoski. But while
we can't think, off-hand, of any real notable
relief specialist from earlier *than* the '50s,
we certainly can't overlook one from earlier
*in* the '50s -- Jim Konstanty, born and raised
just down the road from us here. It could be
argued that Konstanty's MVP season for the
1950 Phillie Whiz Kids was indeed the one
that defined the role of "closer" that would
develop in a later generation.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/konstji01.shtml
http://bioproj.sabr.org/bioproj.cfm?a=v&v=l&bid=3312&pid=7706

and

Joe Page and Johnny Murphy.

and

Otis "Doc" Crandall was one of the first
relief pitchers. Like a lot of baseball
ideas, John McGraw was one of the first to
embrace it. Crandall played for the New York
Giants in the dead ball era in the years before
WWI. McGraw used him as a true utility man. He
pitched as a starter and in relief, appearing
in relief in the majority of his pitching games
from 1909 through 1913. He also played the
outfield and did pinch hitting duty. After
Crandall McGraw generally had a pitcher whom
he used mostly in relief.

Dolfo Luque and Firpo Marberry were also
prominent a bit later. Jack Quinn, who had a
long career mostly as a starter, pitched in
relief almost exclusively beginning in 1930
when he was forty six. He continued to pitch
through 1933 leading the league in games finished
in 1931 and 32, making 38 and 42 relief appearances
in those two years. Johnny "Grandma" Murphy was
a relief star for the New York Yankees in the
'30s and early '40s. Except for 1934 when half
of his appearances were in relief, he pitched
almost exclusively in relief.

Jim Konstanty in 1949 for the Philadelphia
Phillies was the first "modern" reliever.
Throughout the '50s and into the '60s managers
used relievers much differently than they do
today. The top reliever on a staff frequently
pitched two or three innings in a game and
some were used as occasional starters. It
wasn't till the '50s that relief specialists
became part of every team.

and

David and Joel, thanks, more good stuff.
We *knew* we blanking on a few guys from
back when. And having had a few more
minutes to cogitate, we'd add Joe Black
and Clem Labine to the 1950s reliever list,
although, again, granted, not really quite
in the 9th-inning shut-down specialist role
that fully emerged in the '70s.

One more trade before the deadline?

Having just experienced three days without access to the internet, I was curious to see how my teams performed in my “absence.”

In L.A. Slackers, Harder’s Hitters maintained first place. One benefit of my forced inattention was sitting Gio Gonzalez for the latest in his longish stretch of lousy outings. We’re still in first, by nine points as of today, with 55.

In Pine Tar and Cold Beer (the head-to-head league), I had set up my weekly lineups before departing on my business trip, so there wasn’t anything I might have done except pick up free agents. Whether I missed out on anyone or not, I upped my transaction lead upon my return. The Jo-Hari Hitters sit in second place, five games back of the Black Sheeps and eight up on the two teams tied for third. A playoff berth seems assured.

Despite being in first place, fairly comfortably and for most of the season, in L.A. Slackers, I’m hoping to solidify that with one more trade with the ChowdaHeads, ensuring them of at least third place in an ideal win-win situation.

Rank	Team	-R	+HR	RBI	-SB	OBP	-W	SV	K	-HLD	ERA	WHIP
1	Harder's Hitters	575	156	551	98	.336*	59	59	860	49	3.79	1.27*
2	chi-town hustlers	523	154	524	80	.338*	67	52	824	40	3.55	1.24
3	Biloxi Ibexes	471	139	526	73	.338*	70	55	905	39	3.80	1.22
4	ChowdaHeads	514	104	517	74	.336*	65	74	863	32	3.16	1.15
5	Hollywood Weasels	537	127	520	86	.324	49	55	803	43	3.51	1.27*
6	Khronic	532	146	567	76	.352	43	3	675	41	4.38	1.35
7	Wombats	517	99	441	70	.337	69	57	772	30	3.47	1.16

In runs, we have a comfortable lead, and could enable the ChowdaHeads to gain on the Hustlers, currently in second place. Net of ten runs needed.

In home runs, we are up by only two on the Hustlers. If they overtake us, that’s a two-point swing in the standings. The ChowdaHeads are second to last in HR, up by 5 over the last place team. Conceivably, they could trade us some HR.

We’re 16 RBI out of first, with a buffer of 25-31 over the next three teams. The ChowdaHeads are three back of that pack, so four to ten RBI would help them leapfrog the other three teams that are in contention. Conceivably, we could trade them some RBI.

In steals, we’re in first, twelve steals up on the second place team. The ChowdaHeads are in fifth with 74, one up on the overall third place Ibexes, six back of the second place overall Hustlers. Conceivably, we could help them in steals.

We’re tied in OBP, so no action there, other than each trying to gain on the Husters and Ibexes, a mere two points ahead (but at this point in the season, is it “mere?”).

In pitching, we could bag wins, or else we need to up the productivity to catch the ChowdaHeads. That doesn’t seem likely. Better would be to trade wins to the ChowdaHeads, as their 65 is but two behind the Hustlers and five back of the Ibexes, both teams they’re pursuing in the standings.

The ChowdaHeads should waltz in saves, and we should finish second, but behind our current 59 saves are teams with 57, 55, 55, and 52 (three of these being in the top five contenders in the league). They could trade us saves, still finish first, and help us lock down second in saves, first overall.

Strikeouts is like OBP…we’re tied, so let’s not touch this in trade.

Holds are very interesting. Having already done a saves for holds swap, it’s helped me but not the ChowdaHeads. They sit at 32 holds, two up on the last place team and 7, 8, 9, and 11 holds back of the teams between us and them (three of whom are in the running for second to fifth overall). It may be too late, but trading them more holds makes total sense.

All I can do in ERA is lose a point to the Ibexes, but that’s more a roster management issue and a fingers-crossing issue than a trade issue. Although, since relievers usually have lower ERAs than starters (albeit with lower leverage due to fewer innings), a holds guy plus starter for a closer could be worthwhile). The ChowdaHeads have a huge lead, so could trade ERA to us.

My pitching staff is WHIPped…tied for fifth, ahead of only one other team. The ChowdaHeads are in first, with a slim 0.01 lead over the second place team (a non-contender), and it’s not clear how to trade for that (nor if he’d want to risk any WHIP). Perhaps my trading him some net WHIP would help him without costing me anything (I’m 2^nd to last as is).

So the “executive summary” of all this is:

Hitters Chowdas

R need 10

HR need could trade

RBI need 16 need 4-10

SB need 6

W lost cause need 3-6

SV need security should waltz

HLD need a bunch

ERA risk of -1 big lead

WHIP can’t drop could solidify

Hitters trade runs, runs batted in, stolen bases, wins, and whip to the ChowdaHeads for empty home runs, earned run average, and saves.

But who are the players involved?

Probably have to be talking about non-keepers, but let’s be open to anything.

First off, are there any “empty” home run hitters on the ChowdaHeads roster who would be net upgrades to my team? Let’s go look…

Surprisingly, keeper Ian Kinsler may be someone to include in a trade, as the ChowdaHeads have Howie Kendrick at second base…Kinsler has scored 23 more runs, hit 10 more HR, driven in 14 more runs, and stolen 10 more bases, at the same OBP as Kendrick.

As for starting pitchers, I think I have to keep Felix Hernandez, and he probably doesn’t want Brandon Morrow (plus I need his strikeouts), but both Brandon McCarthy and Rich Harden have a 1.17 season WHIP, and could provide wins the rest of the way.

Rafael Soriano (or Mike Adams) could be the holds guy included.

So Hitters would be sending away Kinsler, Soriano, McCarthy, and Harden for empty home runs, saves, and ERA coming back. Kinsler would be replaced by Jason Kipnis, a possible keeper for next year (or Dustin Ackley, though he has cooled).

ChowdaHeads would put Kinsler at second and move Kendrick to left if he still wants to bench Coco Crisp, or bench Kendrick, move Hamilton to left, and put Crisp in center. They could stream the starters, and replace the closer traded away with Soriano/Adams.

The closer would have to be Kyle Farnsworth, as the ChowdaHeads want to keep Jonathan Papelbon.

As for the empty home runs, Hideki Matsui is slightly better than replacement level and doesn’t steal bases, and could replace Kinsler in the utility slot, but that’s not much value coming back…

Another take would be Nelson Cruz for Carlos Quentin, essentially giving up steals, but gaining OBP.

Kinsler, Cruz, Soriano, Harden and McCarthy for Farnsworth, Quentin, Matsui, and Takahashi?

Last 14 days:

Kinsler 7/2/9/2/.352

Kendrick 4/0/0/0/.243

Cruz 8/3/6/2/.381

Quentin 10/4/10/0/.288

Pine Tar and Cold Beer update - 2nd place overall

I don't think and focus on Pine Tar and Cold Beer as much as I do on L.A. Slackers.

Though both A.L.-only fantasy leagues, PTCB is a weekly head-to-head league, which to this point I don't like as much as straight points Rotisserie.

Plus, in L.A. Slackers I've been in first pretty much all season, and in PTCB I'm only in second ;-).

Here is my roster for now on the Jo-Hari Hitters in PTCB:

SLOT	PLAYER, TEAM POS	H/AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	%OWN
C	Carlos Santana, Cle C, 1B K	87/370	50	17	55	4	.235	100
1B	Adrian Gonzalez, Bos 1B K	159/452	78	18	91	1	.352	100
2B	Dustin Ackley, Sea 2B K?	46/149	21	5	23	2	.309	91.7
3B	Kevin Youkilis, Bos 1B, 3B	102/374	62	16	76	3	.273	100
SS	Alexei Ramirez, CWS SS	113/420	61	10	45	4	.269	99.9
1B/3B	Danny Valencia, Min 3B	101/413	42	12	58	2	.245	53.6
2B/SS	Brett Lawrie, Tor 2B K?	3/7	0	0	1	0	.429	22.7
OF	Nelson Cruz, Tex OF K	94/358	47	24	72	6	.263	100
OF	Mike Carp, Sea 1B, OF, DH	29/99	8	2	14	0	.293	5.4
OF	Peter Bourjos, LAA OF	88/328	42	4	23	15	.268	4.6
UTIL	Colby Rasmus, Tor OF	91/375	64	12	45	5	.243	91.7
UTIL	B.J. Upton, TB OF	90/391	52	16	56	23	.230	100

This league, like L.A. Slackers, has but five keepers a year. I'd like each to have more. When I put work into scouting a player and then pick him up in the draft or as a free agent, I'd like to benefit beyond the current season.

I don't play a version of the game with auctions, prices, and/or salaries, though that would make things interesting.

In PTCB there is also a rule that keepers can only be kept for three seasons (counting the first). So, for instance, Kevin Youkilis must be turned loose for the 2012 draft, as he's been rostered in our league three consecutive years (all by Jo-Hari Hitters, but the status carries over in trades).

Looking just at the hitters above, Adrian Gonzalez is obviously a keeper. He'll be on the second year of his keeper contract.

Carlos Santana, despite being more valuable in L.A. Slackers because it uses on base percentage instead of batting average, is still one of the better A.L. catchers at present, in a position with a lot of scarcity. Alex Avila and Victor Martinez are the only catchers that have come close to Santana's productivity, as Joe Mauer has had a dismal season in terms of power production.

Nelson Cruz has not been otherworldly, but he has contributed in four categories, so it makes sense to keep him for his third season. He's always an injury risk, though.

And it's awfully tough to throw B.J. Upton's counting stats back into the free agent pool, but that .230 batting average sticks out.

One out of Dustin Ackley and Brett Lawrie might be a keeper for next year at second base, though shortstop in the A.L. is a shallower position, and Alexei Ramirez may make more sense, even with his "meh" season...

As for pitching, at most I'll keep one closer, as my starters are marginal talents. In fact, scanning the roster below, you will see a lot of "chaff" among the pitchers. In part that's for two weeks from now, when I loaded up on pitchers who will have two starts then.

Brandon Morrow gets strikeouts, but kills in ERA, and Gio Gonzalez gets strikeouts (not as many), but has an elevated WHIP. Jeremy Hellickson gets wins, but isn't striking out guys the way he was expected to.

Jordan Walden has not been without flaws this year, but is probably the best option of he, Neftali Feliz, and Brandon League. Or I could keep five hitters and draft a closer "too early."

SLOT	PLAYER, TEAM	IP	H	BB	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP	%OWN	K/9	K/BB
P	Neftali Feliz, Tex	42	33	20	29	1	22	3.64	1.26	100.0	6.21	1.45
P	Brandon Morrow, Tor	119.2	108	44	139	8	0	4.51	1.27	93.6	10.49	3.16
P	Gio Gonzalez, Oak	136.1	122	64	138	9	0	3.10	1.36	97.0	9.13	2.16
P	Kyle Farnsworth, TB	43	34	8	34	3	20	2.09	0.98	100.0	7.12	4.25
P	Jeremy Hellickson, TB	122.2	94	45	79	10	0	3.15	1.13	100.0	5.82	1.76
P	Brett Cecil, Tor	70.1	69	26	52	4	0	4.35	1.35	7.7	6.68	2.00
P	Jeff Francis, KC	140.2	164	26	73	4	0	4.48	1.35	1.6	4.69	2.81
P	Tim Wakefield, Bos	106.1	106	32	58	6	0	4.99	1.30	0.9	4.92	1.81
B	Jordan Walden, LAA K?	44.1	35	18	47	3	24	2.84	1.20	100.0	9.59	2.61
B	Matt Moore, TB K*	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	0.0	11.97	4.85
B	Felipe Paulino, KC	88	96	26	84	1	0	4.19	1.39	0.4	8.59	3.23
B	Alfredo Simon, Bal	51.2	53	15	36	3	0	3.83	1.32	0.1	6.33	2.40
B	Chris Tillman, Bal	59.1	69	22	43	3	0	4.85	1.53	0.2	6.55	1.95

Should I trade away more holds?

We looked at the reason that I made the Daniel Bard for Andrew Bailey trade in L.A. Slackers...securing 2nd place in saves (and breaking the extant four-way tie) while providing a non-contending team with some holds that might allow him to bring down some of my pursuers.

I'm fairly comfortably in first in this league, and have a fairly dominant lead in the holds category.

If we do a similar projection of holds (as we did with saves), Harder's Hitters are likely to end up at worst tied for first in holds with current rostered players, not including any contributions from Rafael Soriano (that's the 30-day version of the projection, and he's been injured so had zero holds in the last 30 days). With any contribution from him, I should waltz.

But, any excess holds will be wasted, so I wondered whether I could leverage them into something else.

Now, the ChowdaHeads, the team that traded me Andrew Bailey, have a commanding lead in saves, but sit sixth (of seven) in holds. The addition of Daniel Bard will, at best, let them finish third in holds (if we look at 30-day projections), but possibly stay at sixth (season-long hold rates projected).

It is possible that they would want more holds (four more would give them second place to fourth place in the projections, up from third and sixth) and would deal saves for them.

I'm thinking a Rafael Soriano or Mike Adams for Kyle Farnsworth (or Jonathan Papelbon, but he'll keep him) kind of thing.

Projecting Farnsworth for 10 saves from here on out (1/2 his total of 20 so far in 2/3 of a season), this would ensure my finishing second in saves (which is likely, but this would cinch it...slim chance I'd overtake him for first with this move), while either Adams or Soriano is probably good for at least ten holds the rest of the way.

The danger, of course, is that I trade away so many holds that I drop to second for a net negative one point while finishing second in saves, which might be the outcome without the move.

But that's one point in the standings and my current lead is eight. And I'd be reducing risk on saves, which is clearly very competitive and harder to pick up on the free agent market.

Does it make sense to propose it?

Brendan Ryan's Infield Triple

http://www.billy-ball.com/2011/08/video-the-brendan-ryan-infield-triple/

This is pretty amazingly heads-up base running and a pretty pathetic defensive lapse.

The battle for saves

Having been granted an extension on some "real" work I'm doing, my thoughts turn to baseball, and, in particular, the standings in L.A. Slackers.

Harder's Hitters are leading, fairly comfortably, and have been in first place most of the season.

But rather than become complacent I've been looking to see where I can become more competitive. I talked about my recent acquisition of Andrew Bailey for holds leader Daniel Bard as a way of gaining saves points, but will I?

What I looked at this morning (even before starting my other work ;-) was, given how pitchers on rosters had been accruing saves so far, where were the teams in L.A. Slackers likely to end up in saves and how would that impact the final standings?

The ChowdaHeads lead in saves, with 71, and still have Jonathan Papelbon and Kyle Farnsworth (and Koji Uehara, who may pick up some saves with Texas), so will likely end up in first.

But as of today, four teams are tied for second place with 52, and one is back a bit at 48.

With each of the four second place teams getting 4.5 points in saves, whoever ends up in second will gain up to 1.5 points if the four-way tie is broken.

So, how are Harder's Hitters and our opponents likely to do from here on out?

Harder's Hitters (54.5 points, 4.5 in saves) - Andrew Bailey, Jordan Walden, Brandon League (Glen Perkins, Mike Adams, Rafael Soriano, Alfredo Aceves) who have totaled 66 saves among them in 2011.

Biloxi Ibexes (45 points, 4.5 in saves) - Sergio Santos, Kevin Gregg (Vinnie Pestano, Scott Downs, Tony Sipp) totaling 41 saves in 2011.

Chi-Town Hustlers (45 points, 2 in saves) - Joakim Soria, Neftali Feliz, Joe Nathan (Chris Sale, Jesse Crain) with 52 saves in 2011 (all for the Hustlers).

ChowdaHeads (44 points, 7 in saves) - Jonathan Papelbon, Kyle Farnsworth (Daniel Bard, Koji Uehara, Matt Capps, Hisari Takahashi) with 61 saves in 2011.

Hollywood Weasels (43.5 points, 4.5 in saves) - Mariano Rivera, Chris Perez (Darren Oliver, David Pauley, David Robertson) totaling 52 saves in 2011.

Wombats (37 points, 4.5 in saves) - Jose Valverde, Jon Rauch (Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour) with 43 collective saves in 2011.

Since we are right around the 2/3 mark of the 2011 season, simply adding one-half of the saves accumulated so far by pitchers who are currently on our fantasy rosters to current totals would give a projected final tally (assuming no injuries or changes to closer designations).

That calculation leads to the following projected saves totals:

ChowdaHeads - 112 saves, 7 points, no change
Harder's Hitters - 96 saves, 6 points, +1.5 points
Weasels - 87 saves, 5 points, +0.5 points
Hustlers - 83 saves, 4 points, +2.0 points
Wombats - 81 saves, 3 points, -1.5 points
Ibexes - 79 saves, 2 points, -2.5 points
Khronic - 5 saves, 1 point, no change

And, ceteris paribus, would make the final standings:

1. Harder's Hitters - 56 points
2. Hustlers - 47 points
3t. ChowdaHeads - 44 points
3t. Weasels - 44 points
5. Ibexes - 42.5 points
6. Khronic - 38.5 points
7. Wombats - 36 points

So far, so good.

As a proxy for weighting recent performance more heavily, I also looked at just the last 30 days' worth of performance, and projected from there (with roughly two months left in the season, I doubled the number of saves in the last month for each rostered pitcher and added that to current team totals).

With this more recent weighting, here are the final projected saves standings:

ChowdaHeads - 97 saves, 7 points, no change
Hustlers - 82 saves, 6 points, +4.0
Harder's Hitters - 80 saves, 5 points, +0.5
Wombats - 76 saves, 4 points, -0.5
Weasels - 72 saves, 3 points, -1.5
Ibexes - 66 saves, 2 points, -2.5
Khronic - 4 saves, 1 point, no change

This would make the final standings thus:

1. Harder's Hitters - 55 points (56 with other method)
2. Hustlers - 49 points (47)
3. ChowdaHeads - 44 points (44)
4. Ibexes - 42.5 points (42.5)
5. Weasels - 42 points (44)
6. Khronic - 38.5 points (38.5)
7. Wombats - 37 points (36)

Not much difference, I should be good, and I'm not surprised the Ibexes tried to get me to trade them Jordan Walden this morning...

L.A. Slackers update

Here are the standings in the L.A. Slackers Yahoo A.L.-only seven-team Rotisserie league that uses On Base Percentage instead of Batting Average and adds Holds (5 x 6):

Rank	Team	Points	Pts Back	Moves
1	Harder's Hitters	55	-	104
2	Biloxi Ibexes	46.5	8.5	34
3	Hollywood Weasels	44	11	21
4	chi-town hustlers	43.5	11.5	63
5	ChowdaHeads	43	12	41
6	Khronic	40	15	36
7	Wombats	36	19	22

My hitting has been solid, leading the league in runs, home runs, and stolen bases, while being second in runs batted in. Only in on base percentage are Harder's Hitters below average, fifth in the league. Overall, offense has contributed 30 of the 55 points.

The pitching has been a different story.

Harder's Hitters are first in holds and second in strikeouts, but fourth in saves, fifth in wins and ERA, and sixth in WHIP.

My strategy was to dominate early in holds, drafting for high strikeout, low whip set-up guys on good teams...Daniel Bard of the Red Sox and Rafael Soriano of the Yankees were my two high picks. In fact, with a comfortable lead now in holds (45 with a pack of four teams between 36 and 38) and a five-team dogfight for second in saves, I just traded Bard to the ChowdaHeads straight up for closer Andrew Bailey (I asked for Jonathan Papelbon, but was turned down, and chose Bailey over Kyle Farnsworth).

The ChowdaHeads lead with an astronomical 70 saves, with five teams packed between 48 and 52. I'm in the middle at 51. Thus, any drop-off in save accumulation and I lose two points, any gain and I gain two points, one over each of my closest pursuers. Adding Bailey to Seattle's Brandon League and Anaheim's Jordan Walden gives me a leg up, as three of the other four have only two active closers each.

The Biloxi Ibexes (52) have Sergio Santos, Kevin Gregg, and Frank Francisco, the Hollywood Weasels (52) have Mariano Rivera and Chris Perez, the Wombats (50) have Jose Valverde and Jon Rauch, and the chi-town hustlers (48 saves) have Joakim Soria, Joe Nathan, and Neftali Feliz.

A side benefit is that the ChowdaHeads, with 29 holds at present, could take points from my closest pursuers in holds if Bard is productive enough.

In the meantime, I have both Aaron Crow of the Royals and Alfredo Aceves of the Red Sox, both of whom qualify as starting pitchers (as well as relievers), and both of whom have been accruing saves (and, in the case of Crow, strikeouts). Any day I don't have two regular starting pitchers going I place Crow and Aceves in those roster slots; if I have one starter, I bench Crow.

That strategy, plus the return of Soriano from the disabled list, should allow me to keep the lead in holds and Bailey should get me second in saves, a net positive of two points in the standings.

Including holds in this league leads to some unique strategies, such as over-drafting set-up guys and valuing relievers who get holds and also qualify as starters more highly than otherwise.

My other strategy, with an innings maximum in this league, is to make sure most if not all of my pitchers are high strikeout per inning guys.

In fact, the Biloxi Ibexes, who lead in strikeouts, are also exceeding their allowable innings at this point in the season. Taking their strikeout rate times my team's innings puts us behind by only nine strikeouts, not the 35 nominal ones.

With starters Felix Hernandez, Brandon Morrow, Francisco Liriano, and Gio Gonzalez all having seasons of elevated WHIPs but decent strikeout numbers there may not be much hope of gaining in wins, but I feel good about closing the lead in strikeouts and possibly stealing a point from the second place Ibexes.