It's been a long time since I've posted here, and since I have no followers so far, no great loss.  However, I am looking to change that.  Coffee and baseball...I'll try to stay focused.

My coffee life is wonderful.  My favorite is Trager Brothers French Roast Sumatra, but it is $13.99 a pound and I refuse to mislabel a bag (even though Whole Foods is now corporate Amazon) to get a better price.  Trader Joe's Bay Blend is a suitable dark roast at a more everyday price.  Then again, I do say life is too short for a bad cup of coffee.

Speaking of bad cups of coffee, I spent a month in Italy this Fall (mostly Florence) and can honestly say I had zero.  Amazing coffee culture.  In the Palazzo Capponi (our palatial apartment provided by the university) I used a present we had gotten, and which I highly recommend, an AeroPress.  You basically add one scoop of coffee and slightly-below-boiling water to a plastic tube with a custom flat disc paper filter at the bottom and a plunger that you immediately press down (unlike a press-pot, where you wait three minutes, or whatever).  You essentially get a draw of espresso, to which you can add more of the water for a Cafe Americano.

Others prefer the Italian Bialetti system that we also had in the apartment, which, unlike most other systems that boil water and send it through grounds (like '50's percolators), I must admit made really good coffee.  Remember, I had no bad cuppas.  And my favorite Oltrarno coffee place, Cafe Artigliani, had a really good Americano for 1 Euro 20, and Cornetto (Croissant) for 1.10.

What's hard to get is the big ole American cup a' Joe.  And don't try to order a latte after lunch!


To baseball, the last seven years actually saw two more Giants titles, but those seem long ago.  Maybe there's hope with the new front office brains.

I've kept my string of S.F. Giants Fantasy Camps going, having now hit ten of the last eleven, going back to January 2008.  A separate post will give my decade-formed impressions of what remains my favorite week of the year and I'm actively working to get in shape for camp #11, January 21-29, 2019.

Though it's not baseball, per se, I am known for taking a cup of coffee out to infield warmups at the twice weekly games of the Retreads, Charlottesville's 55-and-over recreational league.  These guys are my inspiration, as some are in their 80's!  I love it, and can't wait for February, or whenever it gets warm enough to get going again.  Helps keep my arm and legs in shape year round.  Plus, I love the competitive outlet.

And fantasy.  I'm down to one regular fantasy league, the L.A. Slackers, an A.L. only 7-team league with on base instead of batting average and the addition of pitching holds.  We've been at it for a while, and I've been competitive most years, winning multiple titles.  But this year, despite having #1 and #2 rated players Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, and Giancarlo Stanton, I finished dead last.  Perhaps my mind was elsewhere.  When I care enough I may blog about it here.

The fantasy league that is an obsession is The Strat-O-Matic League, or TSL, a baseball simulation originally using cards and dice, now offering the option of PC play.  TSL is in its year XXXIX, playing with 2017 as the latest completed season and looking forward to the draft in April 2019 of 2018 player cards.  I was enticed into the league (I refer to that colleague as the devil) in September 1987, and have been playing continuously since, winning the TSL Championship with 1998 cards (and Mark McGwire's 70 home runs) and 2001 cards (and Barry Bonds' 73).  It is a year-round endeavor and my favorite hobby, as well as the main way I learned to be so adept with spreadsheets.  Many older posts below concern The Charlottesville Meadows.  If you've ever read Robert Coover's "The Universal Baseball Association, J. Henry Waugh, Proprietor" you will understand.

But the big news - I am going to take a baseball stadium road trip, and once I started the planning (about 36 hours ago based on a Facebook post) things have amazingly fallen into shape.

There are books and probably websites on the topic, but here's how I went about it.  My grades have to be in on May 16th, and we're not doing Exploring the Good Life in Scandinavia this year in May/June, so I saw after May 16th as a good window.

I have a cousin outside Toronto who had replied to my stadium bucket list Facebook post saying he was ready for a road-trip, so Toronto seemed like a logical place to start, whether he continued on any other segments of the trip or not.  His sister, who lives in Portland, OR, and my sister, near Fresno, California, also expressed interest.  At first I looked at something that would have looped down to KC and St. Louis, and over to Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland.  That would have taken at least two weeks, but it was workable on the map, providing a nice kind of Maine-shaped outline.


So I took at look at Toronto's schedule.  Perfect, a day game hosting the World Champion Boston Red Sox on May 20, which would let us head toward the next closest Major League city, Detroit that evening.  Detroit hosts an Inter-League game with Miami on May 21 in the evening.  Next stop, Wrigley Field for two Cubs games against the Phillies, a night game on May 22 and a day game on May 23.  After the day game we follow the Phillies' team bus to Milwaukee and spend the night before a three-game weekend set between the Phils and Brewers.  Friday May 24 is at 7:05, Saturday May 25 at 3:10, and Sunday May 26 at 1:10.  A weekend in Milwaukee, who knew?

The real route

I've also never seen a team play five consecutive games, which we would here with the Phillies, across two cities.

From Milwaukee we go as far West as we'll go, this time following the Brewers' team bus to Minnesota for another Inter-League tilt, and our fourth time seeing the Brewers, as they visit the Twins at a reasonable 6:10 in the evening on May 27.

With Kansas City and St. Louis both out of town during this window that loop in the original plan doesn't work.  But in some of my map play I saw that the Field of Dreams Movie site is actually on the way back East, and I've always wanted to go there, so thought that would make a nice side-interest trip.  Bring your glove and spikes, maybe we can play!

We'll take whatever time there and then spend the night there or on our way back to Chicago.

Again, with Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland all playing away from home, we skip that more Eastern swing in the original plan and wrap up in Chicago, where we'll at least catch both K.C. and Cleveland in our final two games on May 29 and 30 (both still listed as times TBD).

And there you have it.  Ten baseball games involving eleven teams in six ballparks over eleven days.  May 20-30.  $20,000 inclusive.  I'm in for $150 so far, and a visit to my cousin's.  I've emailed the Blue Jays ticket office since it doesn't seem like tickets for individual games are available yet.  With 20 or more we get a group rate ;-).

Who's with me?

Anatomy of a Trade

In Strat-O-Matic, I came to the difficult decision that while I like the core of my team (the Charlottesville Meadows), competing with the 2011 cards would be difficult.

So, I embarked on a quick rebuild plan.

The aforementioned core of the team includes catcher Carlos Santana, second baseman Dustin Pedroia, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, third baseman Pablo Sandoval, center fielder Dexter Fowler, and pitchers James Shields, Tommy Hanson, Clay Buchholz, Jhoulys Chacin, and Sergio Romo.

There are clear holes at first base and in the corner outfield slots, though I have some young players whom I hope will produce in 2012, including Adam Lind, Matt LaPorta, Chris Davis, and Daric Barton at first base and Travis Snider, Fernando Martinez, and Michael Saunders in left and right.

But older players with usable cards became trade bait.

In particular, 36-year old David Ortiz and 35-year old Carlos Beltran both had really good 2011s, and I was hoping to deal them for fair value.

I let it be known to the league that these players were available, as well as others with useful cards, and also sent targeted emails to a number of franchises, having done an analysis of how my players would fill gaps on their current squads.

One owner plays in a ballpark that is 1-19 singles and 1-19 home runs for lefties (a 95% chance on ballpark singles or homeruns), but 1-1 singles and 1-1 home runs for righties (only a 5% chance of a good outcome for the offense).

Since Beltran, a switch-hitter, would be batting mostly as a left-hander (since most pitchers are right-handed), that would be a good fit for him, although Beltran's power comes mostly as a righty.

Ortiz, a lefty who was actually better against lefties in 2011 but perfectly good against righties, would be a great fit for him as opponents will tend to throw lefties in his ballpark to neutralize his lefty-dominant lineup. Having a lefty who hits lefties well in his park would be a huge plus.

We agreed (roughly) on their abstract value...between a #2 and #3 pick for Beltran, between a #3 and #4 pick for Ortiz.

He offered a #1 pick next year for the two of them, but required a #3 back to do the deal, since he currently has no #2 or #3, so dealing his #1 would leave him in the untenable spot of having no picks until the 4th round. He also wanted a #4 this year as part of the deal.

To make up for the three, he'd give me a #3 in 2016.

This didn't seem like enough for the two.

He revised the offer to take out the #4 this year and the #3 coming back in 2016, and threw in a #7 this year.

So it would be the two players plus my #3 pick in 2013 for his #1 pick in 2013 and his #7 in 2012.

Still didn't seem like enough, and once I found out I didn't even have my #3 pick next year, kind of academic.

In the meantime, another franchise got involved and we quickly sealed a deal.

He was very willing to offer his 2013 #1 pick for the two players, end of story. No need for me to send a pick back, much less two, but also no #7 this year.

Then he asked about 34-year old right-handed reliever Joaquin Benoit, another player I was eminently willing to deal.

Earlier in the conversation he had mentioned David Freese, Danny Espinosa, Rick Porcello, and Wade Davis as young players he could move. Of these, without doing any more research I was most intrigued by Davis, so asked if he'd add Davis for Benoit to the deal, and he agreed.

So, the upshot is that I dumped three players, 34, 35, and 36 years old, who are not at all guaranteed to have value in the future, for a late round #1 pick next year (when I plan to be competitive) and a 26-year old right-handed former prospect who put together a solid 2nd half in 2011.

Playoff bound!

The 2010 Charlottesville Meadows have played 50 of our 60 scheduled games, and have clinched a playoff spot with a record of 30-20, the earliest in a season we have ever done so.

After making the playoffs in 2001, featuring Barry Bonds' 73 home run card, and in fact winning The Stratomatic League World Series for that year (not played until calendar year 2011), the Meadows had finished with at least a .500 record only once since, failing to qualify for the playoffs the previous six seasons.

It's good to be back...

Contemplating the 2011 Charlottesville Meadows

The actual 2011 season Strat-O-Matic card ratings are out, and I think I've confirmed my suspicion that it will be hard to compete and therefore it is time for a quick rebuild and reposition for 2012 cards.

The core of the team will be catcher Carlos Santana, second baseman Dustin Pedroia, third baseman Pablo Sandoval, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, and center fielder Dexter Fowler.

Geovany Soto is a good second catcher, and Jayson Werth may still have a good year left in him, but first base, left field, and potentially right field will be deficiencies to address in the draft this year and next.

That means some long-time Meadows might be available in trade.

Carlos Beltran is arguably the best right fielder in the set, but he's mid-30's.

David Ortiz is a very intriguing reverse lefty designated hitter, and may be a good fit for the right team.

Rajai Davis would be a great defensive outfielder, pinch runner for a contender, and Brandon Inge and Howie Kendrick have their merits as defensive replacements. Daric Barton, Drew Sutton, and Jason Giambi have their uses, but would have to be dealt cheaply if at all.

For pitchers, James Shields, Clay Buchholz, Tommy Hanson, Jhoulys Chacin, Francisco Liriano, and, after TJ surgery recover, Brett Anderson are the hope for the future, though many are injury risks. James McDonald, Mike Pelfrey, and Charlie Morton are long shots for value.

Ervin Santana, a starred but somewhat mediocre starter, might fetch something in trade with a pitching-deprived team.

And if I put together a team that finishes last with 2011 cards I get first crack at Bryce Harper. Right field solved for the next ten years?

The 2011 Charlottesville Meadows

The Charlottesville Meadows are one of the entries in The Strat-O-Matic League, an 11-team keeper league with 50-man rosters (25-man active).

After having won the TSL World Series with 2001 cards (Barry Bonds' 73 homer year), a long run of rebuilding began. It finally seems to have come to fruition, as the team with 2010 cards is at 20-16 with 24 games to play (a .500 record qualifies for the playoffs).

However, several key players on the 2010 team took a step back in 2011 (e.g., Jayson Werth, Jack Cust, Carlos Santana), while a few became useful again (e.g., Carlos Beltran, Pablo Sandoval).

Here's how the team stands and what priorities are in approaching the draft in March 2012.

Strengths -

Double play combination of Dustin Pedroia and Troy Tulowitzki...young, solid defense, decent power and speed, but both less good against right handed pitching in 2011.

Defense, on base, and speed from center fielder Dexter Fowler...but he probably won't lead off.

Defense and great stick against righties from third baseman Pablo Sandoval.

Great stick against righties and good power against lefties from right fielder Carlos Beltran.

Solid stick both ways (slightly better against lefties, surprisingly) from first baseman David Ortiz.

Good 2nd catcher/pinch hitter against lefties Geovany Soto.

Best left-handed power against righties in pinch hitter/1b-5e9 Jason Giambi.

Best left-handed on base against righties in pinch hitter Drew Sutton.

Good outfield defense/pinch runner in Rajai Davis.

Good bunter in Drew Sutton.

Good starred starter in James Shields, decent starred starter in Ervin Santana.

Great reliever in Sergio Romo; good, but flawed, relievers in Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit.

Weaknesses -

At the moment, Howie Kendrick must start in left-field, and either Jason Giambi (limited to one plate appearance per game and a 1b-5e9) or David Ortiz (1b-5e24) must start at first to have any kind of offensive production from those spots. Getting an everyday first baseman and left fielder is mandatory to compete.

Carlos Santana has power but little else against right-handed pitching, but is better than Soto and there are no unlimited use catcher options available in the draft.

It would be nice to have one left-handed pinch hitter to do the work of Giambi and Sutton's two slots, but having looked at John Lamanna's projections, nobody comes close to either Giambi's 8 diamonds and 10.7 home runs or Sutton's 49 on base vs. righties.

Starting pitching beyond James Shields and Ervin Santana is weak, and neither of them is a true ace.

Relief pitching beyond Sergio Romo is suspect, though Liriano, Grant Balfour, and Joaquin Benoit could all make the team. Even Brian Duensing could have his uses, though he is ugly against righties.

Draft strategy -

And it's all about the pitching. The only starred starter I have seen in the draft is Doug Fister, and he becomes my highest priority after "can't miss" prospects. With Fister becoming the staff ace, James Shields slots at #2, Ervin Santana at #3, and a non-starred starter like Tommy Hanson (130 innings), Jhoulys Chacin (194 innings), a combination of Clay Buchholz (83 innings) and Francisco Liriano (134 innings) works okay.

If Fister goes before I pick in the 2nd round, then other options like Josh Collmenter, Philip Humber, Guillermo Moscoso, and Ryan Vogelsong are possible early replacements, though not starred.

For relief pitching, several lefties and righties improve upon Duensing, Benoit, Balfour, and Liriano, in that order. If Fister comes to us, then it's not as important to get a tremendous number of relief innings, but otherwise that will matter.

Lucas Duda is the best first base candidate I have seen whom I have a reasonable chance of snagging. Freddie Freeman and Eric Hosmer will undoubtedly go in the first round, and I'm not psyched about Mark Trumbo or Paul Goldschmidt. Brandon Belt and Anthony Rizzo are the only pure prospects I would take. But how early to target Duda?

For left field, an intriguing option is Nate Schierholtz. Previously a reversed lefty (he hit lefty pitchers better than he did righties), he's normal for 2011, with a low-ish on base of 35 against righties. But he has a modicum of power, runs well, and plays great defense, with the bonus of being even better in right field (thus allowing Rajai Davis to sub into left in Beltran's spot, with Schierholtz moving to right and making the defense even tighter). Similar to Duda, how low can I go and still get him? Seventh round? Gerardo Parra and Eric Thames are alternatives.

I feel like a have a good jump on draft prep, as it's still three months away...

Strat-O-Matic 2011 team is shaping up

From high to low in on base plus slugging percentage (OPS), this is how current Meadows are doing against right-handed pitching (the more relevant comparison) at this point about 80% of the way through the 2011 MLB season.

Unlimited guys:

David Ortiz, lh DH .290/.371/.547/.918
Pablo Sandoval, sh 3B/1B .318/.368/.539/
Carlos Beltran, sh RF/LF? .306/.412/.483/.894
Troy Tulowitzki, rh SS .290/.356/.517/.873
Adam Lind, lh 1B .258/.310/.477/.788
Dustin Pedroia, rh 2B .276/.355/.425/.780
Carlos Santana, sh C .215/.324/.429/.753
Dexter Fowler, sh CF .258/.348/.397/.745
Howie Kendrick, rh LF/2B/1B .278/.331/.401/.732

Limited guys:

Jason Giambi, lh DH, .277/.358/.663/1.021
Drew Sutton, sh UTIL .350/.395/.500/.895

Let's hope they hit lefties:

Matt LaPorta, rh 1B .247/.300/.429/.729
Jayson Werth, rh RF .241/.334/.392/.726
Travis Snider, lh LF .257/.312/.396/.708
Geovany Soto, rh C .231/.303/.396/.699
Jed Lowrie, sh UTIL .200/.262/.287/.549

In fact, against lefties the starting line-up changes only slightly (though the batting order switches around), with Jed Lowrie replacing Pablo Sandoval, Carlos Santana moving to first in Adam Lind's stead, and Geovany Soto moving in at catcher.

OPS against lefties, starting nine:

Dustin Pedroia, rh 2B .385/.500/.585/1.085
David Ortiz, lh DH .320/.424/.578/1.002
Troy Tulowitzki, rh SS .336/.399/.602/1.000
Jed Lowrie, sh 3B .375/.394/.568/.962
Geovany Soto, rh C .280/.400/.533/.933
Howie Kendrick, rh LF/2B/1B .319/.378/.519/.897
Carlos Santana, sh 1B/C .299/.405/.482/.887
Carlos Beltran, sh RF/LF? .227/.283/.527/.811
Dexter Fowler, sh CF .271/.404/.377/.780

Limited guys/bench guys:

Jason Giambi, lh DH .273/.407/.682/1.089
Pablo Sandoval, sh PH .282/.291/.462/.753
Adam Lind, lh 1B .275/.302/.413/.715

After looking at it, these guys don't make the team:

Jayson Werth, rh RF .185/.319/.370/.688
Matt LaPorta, rh 1B .213/.268/.347/.615

Thinking about Keepers

In L.A. Slackers, Harder's Hitters are still holding down first place, with a nine point lead.

First in runs, home runs, steals, and holds and second in runs batted in, saves, and strikeouts, it's been a successful run so far.

As I think about the five keepers I may want for 2012, here's where things stand.

1. Miguel Cabrera, 1b
2. Curtis Granderson, cf
3. Ian Kinsler, 2b

These three are elite players, even if they play at fairly deep positions in the A.L. Kinsler is an injury risk on an annual basis, and had I been able to move him at the trade deadline I may have been happy with Jason Kipnis, but what I may aim to do is draft Kipnis fairly high, then look to trade one next year.

4. Carlos Santana, c

Because this is an on base league, Santana's .354 isn't a problem, whereas his sub-.240 batting average is in leagues that use it. He will likely end up with mid-20's home runs and trails only Alex Avila and Victor Martinez in A.L. catcher value.

5. Felix Hernandez, sp or Nelson Cruz, rf

This is where it gets tough. Hernandez is not having quite as good a year as in 2010, but he's still one of the best starting pitcher options and would be hard to replace.

Or maybe not. Cruz plays a deep position, has a below average on base percentage, isn't stealing bases the way he used to, and is an injury risk.

Okay, so it's Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Ian Kinsler, Carlos Santana, and Felix Hernandez.