The 2011 Charlottesville Meadows

The Charlottesville Meadows are one of the entries in The Strat-O-Matic League, an 11-team keeper league with 50-man rosters (25-man active).

After having won the TSL World Series with 2001 cards (Barry Bonds' 73 homer year), a long run of rebuilding began. It finally seems to have come to fruition, as the team with 2010 cards is at 20-16 with 24 games to play (a .500 record qualifies for the playoffs).

However, several key players on the 2010 team took a step back in 2011 (e.g., Jayson Werth, Jack Cust, Carlos Santana), while a few became useful again (e.g., Carlos Beltran, Pablo Sandoval).

Here's how the team stands and what priorities are in approaching the draft in March 2012.

Strengths -

Double play combination of Dustin Pedroia and Troy Tulowitzki...young, solid defense, decent power and speed, but both less good against right handed pitching in 2011.

Defense, on base, and speed from center fielder Dexter Fowler...but he probably won't lead off.

Defense and great stick against righties from third baseman Pablo Sandoval.

Great stick against righties and good power against lefties from right fielder Carlos Beltran.

Solid stick both ways (slightly better against lefties, surprisingly) from first baseman David Ortiz.

Good 2nd catcher/pinch hitter against lefties Geovany Soto.

Best left-handed power against righties in pinch hitter/1b-5e9 Jason Giambi.

Best left-handed on base against righties in pinch hitter Drew Sutton.

Good outfield defense/pinch runner in Rajai Davis.

Good bunter in Drew Sutton.

Good starred starter in James Shields, decent starred starter in Ervin Santana.

Great reliever in Sergio Romo; good, but flawed, relievers in Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit.

Weaknesses -

At the moment, Howie Kendrick must start in left-field, and either Jason Giambi (limited to one plate appearance per game and a 1b-5e9) or David Ortiz (1b-5e24) must start at first to have any kind of offensive production from those spots. Getting an everyday first baseman and left fielder is mandatory to compete.

Carlos Santana has power but little else against right-handed pitching, but is better than Soto and there are no unlimited use catcher options available in the draft.

It would be nice to have one left-handed pinch hitter to do the work of Giambi and Sutton's two slots, but having looked at John Lamanna's projections, nobody comes close to either Giambi's 8 diamonds and 10.7 home runs or Sutton's 49 on base vs. righties.

Starting pitching beyond James Shields and Ervin Santana is weak, and neither of them is a true ace.

Relief pitching beyond Sergio Romo is suspect, though Liriano, Grant Balfour, and Joaquin Benoit could all make the team. Even Brian Duensing could have his uses, though he is ugly against righties.

Draft strategy -

And it's all about the pitching. The only starred starter I have seen in the draft is Doug Fister, and he becomes my highest priority after "can't miss" prospects. With Fister becoming the staff ace, James Shields slots at #2, Ervin Santana at #3, and a non-starred starter like Tommy Hanson (130 innings), Jhoulys Chacin (194 innings), a combination of Clay Buchholz (83 innings) and Francisco Liriano (134 innings) works okay.

If Fister goes before I pick in the 2nd round, then other options like Josh Collmenter, Philip Humber, Guillermo Moscoso, and Ryan Vogelsong are possible early replacements, though not starred.

For relief pitching, several lefties and righties improve upon Duensing, Benoit, Balfour, and Liriano, in that order. If Fister comes to us, then it's not as important to get a tremendous number of relief innings, but otherwise that will matter.

Lucas Duda is the best first base candidate I have seen whom I have a reasonable chance of snagging. Freddie Freeman and Eric Hosmer will undoubtedly go in the first round, and I'm not psyched about Mark Trumbo or Paul Goldschmidt. Brandon Belt and Anthony Rizzo are the only pure prospects I would take. But how early to target Duda?

For left field, an intriguing option is Nate Schierholtz. Previously a reversed lefty (he hit lefty pitchers better than he did righties), he's normal for 2011, with a low-ish on base of 35 against righties. But he has a modicum of power, runs well, and plays great defense, with the bonus of being even better in right field (thus allowing Rajai Davis to sub into left in Beltran's spot, with Schierholtz moving to right and making the defense even tighter). Similar to Duda, how low can I go and still get him? Seventh round? Gerardo Parra and Eric Thames are alternatives.

I feel like a have a good jump on draft prep, as it's still three months away...