Anatomy of a Trade

In Strat-O-Matic, I came to the difficult decision that while I like the core of my team (the Charlottesville Meadows), competing with the 2011 cards would be difficult.

So, I embarked on a quick rebuild plan.

The aforementioned core of the team includes catcher Carlos Santana, second baseman Dustin Pedroia, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, third baseman Pablo Sandoval, center fielder Dexter Fowler, and pitchers James Shields, Tommy Hanson, Clay Buchholz, Jhoulys Chacin, and Sergio Romo.

There are clear holes at first base and in the corner outfield slots, though I have some young players whom I hope will produce in 2012, including Adam Lind, Matt LaPorta, Chris Davis, and Daric Barton at first base and Travis Snider, Fernando Martinez, and Michael Saunders in left and right.

But older players with usable cards became trade bait.

In particular, 36-year old David Ortiz and 35-year old Carlos Beltran both had really good 2011s, and I was hoping to deal them for fair value.

I let it be known to the league that these players were available, as well as others with useful cards, and also sent targeted emails to a number of franchises, having done an analysis of how my players would fill gaps on their current squads.

One owner plays in a ballpark that is 1-19 singles and 1-19 home runs for lefties (a 95% chance on ballpark singles or homeruns), but 1-1 singles and 1-1 home runs for righties (only a 5% chance of a good outcome for the offense).

Since Beltran, a switch-hitter, would be batting mostly as a left-hander (since most pitchers are right-handed), that would be a good fit for him, although Beltran's power comes mostly as a righty.

Ortiz, a lefty who was actually better against lefties in 2011 but perfectly good against righties, would be a great fit for him as opponents will tend to throw lefties in his ballpark to neutralize his lefty-dominant lineup. Having a lefty who hits lefties well in his park would be a huge plus.

We agreed (roughly) on their abstract value...between a #2 and #3 pick for Beltran, between a #3 and #4 pick for Ortiz.

He offered a #1 pick next year for the two of them, but required a #3 back to do the deal, since he currently has no #2 or #3, so dealing his #1 would leave him in the untenable spot of having no picks until the 4th round. He also wanted a #4 this year as part of the deal.

To make up for the three, he'd give me a #3 in 2016.

This didn't seem like enough for the two.

He revised the offer to take out the #4 this year and the #3 coming back in 2016, and threw in a #7 this year.

So it would be the two players plus my #3 pick in 2013 for his #1 pick in 2013 and his #7 in 2012.

Still didn't seem like enough, and once I found out I didn't even have my #3 pick next year, kind of academic.

In the meantime, another franchise got involved and we quickly sealed a deal.

He was very willing to offer his 2013 #1 pick for the two players, end of story. No need for me to send a pick back, much less two, but also no #7 this year.

Then he asked about 34-year old right-handed reliever Joaquin Benoit, another player I was eminently willing to deal.

Earlier in the conversation he had mentioned David Freese, Danny Espinosa, Rick Porcello, and Wade Davis as young players he could move. Of these, without doing any more research I was most intrigued by Davis, so asked if he'd add Davis for Benoit to the deal, and he agreed.

So, the upshot is that I dumped three players, 34, 35, and 36 years old, who are not at all guaranteed to have value in the future, for a late round #1 pick next year (when I plan to be competitive) and a 26-year old right-handed former prospect who put together a solid 2nd half in 2011.