My favorite fantasy baseball activity is playing Strat-O-Matic, a simulation that was originally set up as a cards, dice, and charts game and now can be played that way or on a computer.
It's a statistically-heavy game rather than a video game, with two managers squaring off against each other and playing a nine-inning (or longer) game, setting lineups, making strategic decisions, and exercising substitutions and bullpen management.
Strat is similar in that regard to other simulation games such as APBA, Be A Manager, Statis-Pro, Extra Innings, Sherco Baseball Simulation, and my childhood favorite Gil Hodges' Pennant Fever.
Unlike many other forms of fantasy baseball, particularly Rotisserie points or head-to-head, performance beyond basic offensive performance matters, including more sophisticated hitting ratings (e.g., clutch, ground ball double plays, bunt, hit and run, lefty/righty splits) as well as defensive range and arm. This makes it more like real baseball.
In playing Strat in a keeper league, you're both the General Manager and the field Manager of your team. Issues of short-term vs. long-term perspective come into play...do you go for it now by trading away draft choices for useful cards or is it time to rebuild? Just like Major League G.M.'s it's hard to be consistently good as players age and win-now trades take their toll. Developing a good farm system is critical, which I've learned only recently.
I spent one year (the 1993 card season?) managing a team in The Strat-O-Matic League whose owner was choosing to take a one-year hiatus. Finding my way, I managed the Zebus to the playoffs, where I faced the Charlottesville Meadows, the province of one of my business school colleagues (who had introduced me to Strat).
He schooled me in winning our series (playing with cards, dice, and charts at his kitchen table), then handed the team to me to take the rest of the way. I managed the team to a series victory in the next round to make the World Series where the Meadows were swept in four games.
But I was hooked.
The team handed to me featured Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire in their prime, as well as Barry Larkin and Tom Glavine, but was also almost completely devoid of first-round draft picks into the medium-term future, the owner having been fond of "#1 picks six and seven years out for Barry Larkin" kinds of deals. The irony is that if he had pursued that strategy earlier, he wouldn't have been able to draft Bonds and McGwire when they came into the league.
Over the next few seasons the Meadows routinely made the playoffs, with me playing the overwhelming bulk of the 54-game season and my mentor picking up some games here and there. But it was clear it was becoming my team.
The high point of the early years was reaching three straight World Series, with the 1996, 1997, and 1998 cards, each year against the Venice Merchants. After two close World Series losses the Meadows finally won their first title in 1998.
Since then, playoff appearances have been scant, as replacements for Bonds and McGwire haven't been found, but the team is still alive with 2001 cards, when Barry hit 73 home runs, aiming to play the World Series against the Goths in September 2011.
Two years ago I decided to rebuild and have claimed some star players and prospects via draft or trade (or trading fading but useful stars for draft picks).
The current team has several players I'm very high on.
At catcher, Carlos Santana was my first pick in this year's draft (#3 overall), and given that on base percentage matters more than batting average in Strat, he's more than adequate for now and has a very bright future as a 25-year old switch hitter.
Geovany Soto was a second round draft pick a few years ago and has had an uneven career. In 2011 he's mashing lefties, so will be a good second catcher behind Santana.
Adam Lind and David Ortiz provide left-handed power from first base and designated hitter, but neither is a whiz with the glove.
Dustin Pedroia teams with Troy Tulowitzki to form a very valuable middle infield. As mentioned, defense matters in Strat, and these guys are both reliably rated as 1's or 2's (on a 5-point scale, lower is better).
Pablo Sandoval, the "Kung Fu Panda," is one of my personal favorite players. It's certainly easier in that he's an S.F. Giant and I've met him at Fantasy Camp, but I also like having a switch-hitting young third baseman. If only he still played a few games a year at catcher...
Travis Snider in left field and Dexter Fowler in center are both young players who I think have a lot of promise. Fowler was my second round pick in 2010, and I grabbed Travis Snider from an owner who was debating cutting him outright (for a sixth round pick). Neither has been spectacular in 2011, and in fact both spent non-injury time back down in AAA, but both are serviceable and are showing recent signs of life.
Jayson Werth was my rightfielder, and though he was on the wrong side of 30 I expected him to perform better than he has in 2011. Thank goodness Carlos Beltran, even older, has been resurgent now that he's healthier, though his range now seems to limit him to a corner outfield spot. Since Werth has tanked, that's a good short term fit.
With regard to pitching, the Meadows feature three solid right-handed starters in Tommy Hanson, James Shields, and Jhoulys Chacin. The statistic I pay most attention to for my pitchers is WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), as it's how many base runners they tend to allow (which is the converse of how many outs they get), which translates at least loosely into what kind of Strat card they'll end up with.
Other young starters who may have good seasons in the future include righties Clay Buchholz, Ervin Santana, Charlie Morton, and James McDonald and lefties Francisco Liriano and Brett Anderson (who just underwent Tommy John surgery and will be out until at least mid-2012).
The only reliever I'm really excited about is another personal favorite, another Giant, and another person I've met at Fantasy Camp...Sergio Romo. Though not a closer in "real life," Sergio has great fundamental and peripheral numbers (e.g., WHIP, strikeout to walk ratio, batting average against) and has gotten three good Strat cards in a row as a result.
We may take a closer look at Sergio in a future post.
There are several Meadows who may end up being good or maybe not, but were at least on prospects list I read at one point or another.
Taylor Teagarden, c
Matt LaPorta, 1b
Chris Davis, 1b
Daric Barton, 1b
Steven Pearce, 1b
Howie Kendrick, 2b
Reid Brignac, ss
Jed Lowrie, ss/3b/2b/1b
Drew Sutton, ss/3b
Ian Stewart, 3b
Mat Gamel, 3b
Fernando Martinez, lf
Michael Saunders, lf
Joey Devine, rh rp
J.P. Howell, lh rp
Dan Runzler, lh rp/sp
Brian Duensing, lh sp/rp
David Purcey, lh rp
Players who are over the hill but possibly still useful include designated hitters Jason Giambi and Jack Cust and pitchers Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit, but Brandon Inge, Evan Meek, Brian Tallet, Justin Duchscherer, Jeff Clement, and Lastings Milledge will probably be cuts prior to the 2012 draft.
At this point in the 2011 season, I'm anticipating what next year's team will look like, who will end up with good cards, who is injured so will be prone to that on his card, who will be available in the 2012 draft at positions I need to fill...
And we look alright.
Again, since lefty/righty splits matter in Strat, I tend to look at hitting statistics versus right-handed pitchers when making this kind of evaluation of the Meadows. Since I subscribe to Baseball Prospectus, I use their statistics section and my Meadows filter to sort by either on base percentage (OBP) or on base percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS).
This finer-grained analysis can be enlightening (and somewhat reassuring). For example, Travis Snider had a pretty horrendous start to his 2011 season, ending up getting demoted to AAA for a time. Since he's come back he's done better, but overall still carries only a low .300's on base percentage (league average is about .340). But separating out just against righties he's at .360. That's perfectly playable, especially if he's a lf-3 (rather than a 4 or, god forbid, a 5).
He'll need a platoon partner, but since Howie Kendrick played a fair amount in left field for the Angels this year, he'll get a rating there, and he hits lefties well. Nice fortuitous turn in Kendrick's season increases his usefulness to the team.
The lineup against righties will probably look something like the following:
Beltran, rf, sh (better against righties)
Lind, 1b, lh (good enough against lefties to play both ways)
Ortiz, dh, lh (also good enough to play both ways)
Sandoval, 3b, sh (will need a platoon partner against lefties, Jed Lowrie)
Snider, lf, lh (will need a platoon partner against lefties, Howie Kendrick)
Santana, c, sh (could play against lefties, but Geovany Soto is better)
Tulowitzki, ss, rh (low on base, actually, against righties, but some power)
Fowler, cf, sh (will play both ways, and a cf-1 provides great defense in center)
Pedroia, 2b, rh (much better against lefties so far in 2011, but will play for defense)
All of these might shuffle, but this is essentially high to low in on base percentage against righties, with a few variations.
Other bench players might include Drew Sutton, who hits righties very well but probably wouldn't start over Sandoval, Tulowitzki, or Pedroia, and may not have the requisite 300 at bats to be "unlimited" in our league, and Jason Giambi, who is hitting both lefties and righties well this year as an occasional first baseman and pinch hitter for the Rockies.
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