In a Baseball Prospectus article I just read, the author extolled the virtues of Alex Avila, currently leading the Detroit Tigers in "Wins Above Replacement Player" (WARP or WAR).
Since I triple-own Carlos Santana, I thought I'd look into it further (not that I can get Avila, who resides with Buster Posey and Chris Ianetta on the Goths).
Here is the reply I posted to the article:
Thanks for the article.
Avila's having a great season, but BP projections seem to think he's over his head (rest of season projections):
PA AVG HR R RBI SB TAv WARP
225 .249 5 26 23 1 .258 0.7
His overall stats also mask a platoon risk, though he's been very, very good against righties (.902 OPS vs. rhp/ .673 vs. lhp).
However, his BABIP of .377 against righties may correct from here on out, and his line of .269/.365/.487 is 80th percentile PECOTA for average, 90% for on base, and literally off the charts for slugging and True Average.
Santana, on the other hand, performing so far in 2011 somewhere in his 20%-30% PECOTA range, is projected to pull close to Avila in WARP by season's end, 4.1 to 4.0, and provides on base vs. lefties and power vs. righties.
235 .257 9 31 29 1 .294 1.8
Asdrubal Cabrera will still probably lead the Indians in WAR, but I'll bet Miguel Cabrera will be there by the end for the Tigers.
While I'm bummed I missed out on Avila in our Strat draft two years ago (he went late in the second round and I had targeted the fourth), I'm thrilled I grabbed Santana with the overall #4 pick this year (Heyward, Posey, Bautista went prior).
Carlos Santana, despite the low average, has "Avila Ways."
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